by Joachim MacEbong

Now that the vote counting is nearly concluded, and the official announcement from INEC is being expected, it is time to look at what we can surmise from the Ondo governorship elections.

Akeredolu’s hard work pays off: Since his failure at his first attempt at the governorship in 2012, Rotimi Akeredolu began his 2016 campaign nearly immediately after by relocating to Ondo State. He got in tune with those he wanted to lead, and began his groundwork far in advance. All that has now paid with a massive victory. Aketi has won in 14 of 17 local governments declared so far, with only the riverine votes from Ilaje local government left to count. In becoming Governor-Elect, he has secured nearly 50% of the vote in a three-way race. That’s a thumping win by any standard.

Jimoh the spoiler: Akeredolu might still have won regardless, but it is worthwhile to wonder what role Jimoh Ibrahim played in the failure of outgoing governor, Olusegun Mimiko, to keep Ondo for the PDP. Until Tuesday morning, Jimoh was still the PDP’s official flagbearer in the state, having won the primaries for the Modu-Sheriff faction. Successive rulings by the Appeal Court and Supreme Court restored Eyitayo Jegede’s candidacy, but it was too late. The uncertainty had severely affected his campaign.

What next for Olusola Oke? The travails of the Ilaje man to become governor of his state are many. He was unsuccessful with the PDP ticket in 2012, then moved to the APC last year and contested for the governorship, losing out to Akeredolu. He decamped to the Alliance for Democracy and he has come up woefully short, despite a well-resourced campaign. In fact, his share of the vote looks set to reduce from 2012. Does Oke crawl back to the APC to line up behind Akeredolu? Or will he go back to the PDP to try to rebuild the party in the state? His next moves will be interesting.

Debates don’t matter. Yet: Rotimi Akeredolu was the absentee from the Ondo governorship debate organised by Enough Is Enough Nigeria and televised by Channels. The official statement by his campaign said he was away campaigning in Ilaje. A trend has emerged where those who consider themselves frontrunners skip debates with no electoral consequences. So it proved in this case. Rotimi Akeredolu had better things to do – like winning the election – instead of attending a debate that wouldn’t be watched by anyone who mattered. Maybe one day debates will matter, but we are not there yet.

Is Jagaban in recession? Following the removal of the Ondo APC chairman, Isaac Kekemeke and two postponements of the primaries, the coast was now clear for Akeredolu to emerge the party’s flagbearer in the state by a narrow margin. Soon after, Tinubu wrote to demand the resignation of the APC chairman, John Oyegun, and stayed away from Akeredolu’s rallies. With a resounding mandate, Akeredolu is not under Tinubu’s influence. We could look back on the Ondo elections as the beginning of the end of Tinubu’s dominance in the South West, or perhaps the rumours of his political demise are grossly exaggerated. Whatever the answer turns out to be could have significant implications for Nigerian politics.

Op-ed Editor