Amanze Obi: The odds favour Jonathan for 2015

by Amanze Obi

jonathan

He was not perturbed by such distractions. It was with this single-mindedness that Jonathan ran the 2011 elections. Those who felt otherwise were disappointed. But Jonathan is not yet done. He is set to contest the 2015 presidential election and that is the bone of contention now.

Opposition elements in the country seem to be united by one agenda–Operation Stop Jonathan. Not too long ago, Jonathan had cause to tell Nigerians that he was the most maligned President in the history of Nigeria. He was right. But he probably does not know why he is easily the subject of unedifying banters.

Jonathan, as we all know, is a product of accident. As Vice President, he was as meek as a lamb. But circumstances thrust him up. He became President But his critics were not impressed. They felt and still feel that he does not possess Presidential qualities. They see him, more as a lame duck than anything else. In the face of this perception, Jonathan was expected by his critics not to take his luck too far by aspiring to stay longer than necessary in office. But as they entertained themselves with such imaginings, Jonathan plotted his own way up the power ladder.

He was not perturbed by such distractions. It was with this single-mindedness that Jonathan ran the 2011 elections. Those who felt otherwise were disappointed. But Jonathan is not yet done. He is set to contest the 2015 presidential election and that is the bone of contention now.

His critics find this so revolting that they are no longer prepared to give him a chance. Everything has to be done to stop him. That is the crucial endgame that has begun to play itself out.

First, it manifested in the decision of some opposition parties to form the All Progressives Congress (APC). The strength of the new party cuts across the north and south of the country.

The APC is firmly rooted in south west Nigeria where Bola Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) joined forces with two northern parties—The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP). With this Coalition, it is expected that the South West and the North can muster enough force to defeat Jonathan and his PDP.

But it would appear that those who want Jonathan out are not satisfied with the coming of APC. There appears to be some fears lurking in the shadows that Jonathan’s PDP might still defeat the APC at the polls. Consequently, a new set of opposition elements, this time from within PDP, has emerged. This is the second manifestation of the opposition against Jonathan. The plan here is to use the instrumentality of the party to undo Jonathan and his 2015 ambition. To achieve their objective, they have split the party into two blocs. Today, something called New PDP is born and it is up in arms against the old PDP.

The rebels who have left the PDP somewhat dismembered started sounding their note of warning early enough. Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, was one of the earliest to blot out. He said he was ill at ease with President Jonathan’s tenacious hold on power. Atiku sees Jonathan as a usurper who is unjustly holding on to what belongs to the north.  Consequently, he declared that the zoning    arrangement in PDP was dead since Jonathan, a southerner, has taken the place of the north.
For analysts and keen watches of the Nigerian polity, you need not read between the lines to know what Atiku was driving at. He meant to say that the quest for the presidency is no longer a north versus south affair. It has become the survival of the fittest. In the quest, the strong can freely trample upon the weak, and it would be considered to be legitimate.

We were yet to come to terms with Atiku’s disappointment when Muazu Babangida Aliyu, the Governor of Niger state, came up with his own version of the story. He said Jonathan reached a pact with the north to spend only one term in office. Any attempt by Jonathan to do otherwise, he said, would amount to a breach of the agreement.
This was how it all began. Then soon afterwards, their coast got expanded. They recruited other renegades who are bent on power returning to the north.

Today, they have massed up under the umbrella of the “New PDP”

But we know that there is nothing new or old about PDP. The party remains what it is, good or bad. But Atiku said they formed the new PDP to rescue the party from bad elements. He said their objective was to return the party to the path of democracy and good governance as envisaged by its founding fathers.

In the same vein, Babangida Aliyu and his Jigawa State counterpart, Sule Lamido, have said that they have no plans to leave PDP. This is in spite of their belongingness to the new PDP. They want to fight from within. But this is only as it appears. The truth of the matter is that neither Atiku nor the renegade governors is out to save PDP. Their aim, to all intents and purposes, is to destroy the party. They want to weaken the party to the extent that it will no longer be a formidable platform for electoral contest, at least at the presidential level.

The renegades decided to adopt this game plan when it became obvious to them that Jonathan is set to return to office in 2015 under the platform of the PDP. Subterranean moves aimed at stopping the president have failed. Those opposed to his continued stay in office have therefore adopted a new approach, notably, to leave PDP in tatters. Jonathan and his old PDP are, at moment, up in arms against the quislings who are out to destroy the PDP.

Regardless of these moves, I am more inclined to think that Jonathan will weather the storm. Contrary to what the opposition elements think, the odds may favour Jonathan after all.

For keen observers of developments in the polity, the real battle for 2015 will be fought in the north. The south is secure for Jonathan. The south east and south south are likely to give Jonathan 95 percent of their votes. The south west, in spite of its belongingness to APC, will vote for Jonathan when the time comes.

At least 70 percent of their votes will be guaranteed for Jonathan. With this scenario, the real battle ground will then be the North. Regardless of the desperation by some powerful northerners who are insisting that power must return to their region, Jonathan is likely to scale the hurdle. As an incumbent, Jonathan must enjoy some advantages which cannot be wished away even by the most virulent opposition.

The fireworks are being fired from all flanks. This can be interesting. Unfortunately, some negative vibrations are wafting out from both sides of the divide.  We have heard some northerners threaten that returning power to the north is a task that must be done. Allusions have been made to bloodshed. The same is true of the south. Some of Jonathan’s kinsmen have been quoted as saying that there would be bloodshed if Jonathan loses.

Threats such as these are cheap. They are as cheap as the one coming from the north over the 2016 census. Arewa has asked Jonathan to remove Festus Odimegwu as Chairman of National Population Commission (NPC). They have said that there would be crisis if Odimegwu is allowed to conduct the 2016 census. This is sheer blackmail and a cheap one at that. Statements such as this are part of the reason why 2015 is boiling over.

Those who maintain such a stance are simply telling Nigerians that once a northerner takes over, Odimegwu and others like him will lose their jobs. These are unhealthy signals towards 2015. They do not point towards nationhood. They only remind us of those things that divide us. So, 2015 is not just about winning elections, it is equally about balance of forces between the north and the south.

It signposts the age – old mutual antagonism that has characterized the relationship between the two regional blocs of the country. This mutually assured self – destructive tendency is clearly against the spirit of one Nigeria.

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Read this article in the Sun Newspapers

 

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

Comments (3)

  1. By God's Grace,President GEJ will scale through their evil hurdles and that will shatter their freaky mindsets that the *Northerners are born to rule Nigeria*. They shout ONE NIGERIA but are bent on regionalising the Leadership of NIgeria…Nonsense…Boko Haram,ASUU strike,Formation of APC and New PDP etc are just few out of many strategies planned to ruin His Govt,but here is one thing unknowing to them,*They are already failure because,With God Almighty,Nothing at all is IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!!

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  3. By God's Grace,President Jonathan will scale through their hurdles come 2015 election,and that will shatter their freaky mindsets

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