by Sylvester Awenlimobor

With Nigeria currently facing a seemingly unending war against Islamic militants in the North, there is a fear that with its military personnel a bit decimated… the Malian militant groups on Nigerian soil are a big threat.

Mali is at war, and as it is with most wars on West African soil, Nigeria has opted to assist the relatively incapacitated Malian Army reclaim its sovereignty, but there are far-reaching consequences to this whole episode that could define the relative stability in sub-Saharan Africa if not handled properly.

The Northern part of Mali, which is predominantly occupied by the Tuaregs, has always felt a sense of disconnect from the central government at Bamako and ever since the Mouvement Populaire de l’Azaouad (MPA) was founded in Libya (under the watch of Colonel Muammar Ghaddafi and Leadership of Iyad Ag Ghali) in 1988 they have not hidden their intentions to separate and form an Independent State of Azaouad.

The Central government at Bamako is currently in disarray following the March 22nd coup that has left much of the governance of the state in the hands of seemingly incompetent military officers. On the other hand, the Tuareg militants appear to be better prepared for this conflict, with a U.N report in 2012 putting the active combatants at ‘around 3,000’ men with an active recruitment in process. Other recent reports have put that figure closer to 9,000. This was a big contributing factor in the inability of the Malian Armed Forces to combat the Tuareg militants. Why this conflict poses a much bigger threat to the West African sub-region is the presence of three radical Islamic militant groups that are the mainstay of the rebel force- Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), Ansar al Deen and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) who all have personnel that have become well-stocked following their exit from Libya by Allied forces.

The most notable of these three militant arms is AQIM, which evolved from the Algerian conflict of 1990 and has its sphere of influence in Niger, Algeria, Mali, Mauritania and more recently Nigeria. The group was responsible for the bombing of a UN building in Algiers in 2007.

It was upon their return from Libya in August 2011 that they began their military offensive against the then government of Amadou Toure.

The U.N. security council resolution 2085 has authorised a one-year military intervention in Mali, but it is expected that taking into consideration similar experiences in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Libya the military intervention could exceed a year. The Islamic militants like in the case of Afghanistan who share similar topography with Northern Mali take to guerrilla warfare which would undoubtedly lengthen the period of conflict. Surprisingly, not until France had its forces in Mali, did the regional ECOWAS body begin to take active and not verbal steps in the fight against the Tuareg militants. It is essential that Nigeria, considering its influence in the region take up active participation in the fight against the insurgency in Mali. This was re-echoed by Senate President David Mark recently, warning that the ripple effect occasioned by non-action was potentially far more disastrous.

“The situation in Mali is such that if we don’t get involved, we will not be able to cope with the consequence of it and I think it is on that basis we should act and act fast.” Mark pointed out.

David Mark also re-echoed the lingering fear amongst the regional leaders when he stated that :“It is not just that the rebels want to take over in Bamako, I think they also have a grand design to spread their tentacles well beyond the boundaries of Mali and that is the more reason we should try and join the other forces to nip it in the bud.”

With Nigeria currently facing a seemingly unending war against Islamic militants in the North, there is a fear that with its military personnel a bit decimated by other foreign missions and buoyed by its porous borders, reprisal terrorist attacks from the Malian militant groups on Nigerian soil are a big threat.

The General Officer Commanding 1st  Mechanised Division of the Nigerian Army, Kaduna, Major General Garba O. Wahab last August complained that the Army was overstretched in its fight against Boko Haram, and with personnel still out in Sudan and other foreign missions, there are still fears over the containment of possible reprisal attacks within the country by the Nigerian Army, and should the radical Boko Haram up their ante, how prepared will the Nigerian Army be?

But then again, the bigger threat would be not acting and creating a safe haven for Islamic militants in the region, which would inadvertently give the radical Boko Haram sect a more comfortable head quarters to operate from. The lesser devil seems to be perhaps the best option now. We fight!

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Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.