Atom Lim: Opposition merger talks: What’s in it for the ANPP’s Shekarau? (Y! Politico)

by Atom Lim

Shekarau is not someone to come to the table expecting nothing. So what could be in it for this teacher who has managed to maintain stability in the party that Buhari abandoned?

Recently, Ibrahim Shekarau has been speaking confidently on the proposed merger of political parties north and south of the Niger. Two days ago, he gave us an April timeline for forming the new party.

Shekarau’s boldness leaves one rethinking the shape and form this long awaited merger will take. What is in it for the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) leader and 2011 Presidential candidate who dazzled Nigerians with his performance at the NN24 Presidential Debate which President Jonathan dodged?

For many observers, the merger talks have always revolved around two parties and two personalities; the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) led by Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) led by Muhammadu Buhari. Based on this notion, it was easy to calcualte that if A would produce the presidential candidate for the 2015, B would produce the running mate.

Shekarau’s ANPP has changed that mathematics.

By any argument, Shekarau is not someone to come to the table expecting nothing. So what could be in it for this teacher who has managed to maintain stability in the party that Buhari abandoned?

I have two theories. First, Gen. Buhari may opt to leave the stage for Shekarau in 2015. In the event that he doesn’t, Shekarau may be positioning himself as successor to the Buhari political dynasty.

At the moment, the second theory seems more realistic for many reasons. As it stands, Buhari has not given any signs of quitting active politics by 2015. But when he does, he would have to anoint a successor.

So far, it doesn’t look like a succession plan is in place. Mallam El-Rufai who many believe is likely to take over that machinery is not very well accepted among the northern political elite. By all means, he is too pro-south, too liberal. For even naive observers, it is easy to see that El-Rufai’s political base is in the South, not north. In fact, he is mostly responsible for consolidating Buhari’s agenda in the South West.

Another factor that counts against him is that he is relatively new to the Buhari camp.

Indeed, no one in Buhari’s camp from the core north since his ANPP days is as experienced and qualified as Shekarau to takeover from the General.

Whatever happens during these merger talks and after, Shekarau’s active involvement in the process will change the dynamics not only for the new party but for the Buhari camp as well.

And if he emerges as candidate in 2015, Shekarau is likely to influence the youth vote with his surprise eloquence and display of knowledge. Already, several conversations have been had online about the suitability of a Shekarau/Fashola ticket.

This guy, Shekarau, might just be the next big thing.

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Atom Lim is a Nigerian media and communications practitioner. He worked at NEXT publications as a sub-editor before joining the Africa Leadership Forum as web and publications editor. Atom is a regular social commentator, he tweets from @atomlim

 

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

Comments (3)

  1. Nigerian's ought to have grown beyond this religion sentiments, especially the elites. Who cares provided the muslim/ muslim ticket could put food on the table of majority of Nigerians, which we are not getting now. Having said that, I think we have not seen the best of buhari, because at a time like this, it is person with his type of traits that can take us out of this mess. He is frugal, straight forward, strict on corruption because he himself is above board in that area. He's not afraid to make unpopular decision if it will be in the best interest of the majority of nigerians. Our industries were running fine during his rule, Buhari I dof my hat.

  2. Dis merger is doomed,1st shekarue has nothin 2 offer,2nd 2 muslims cannot rule a country were christains decide who rules.3rd I beliv fashola will nt stripe so low 2 b a runnin mate 2 shekarue.I rada vote 4 d devil I knw dan d presume angel I av nt seen.

  3. @atomlim that would be a nice comboe but how sellable is a muslim-muslim ticket in Nigeria?

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