by Aye Dee

For folks who think Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad (Boko Haram) is not a formidable force, you’re wrong.

By my estimates, even prior to taking Bama the insurgents had about 50,000 people bearing arms. With Bama under BH control and forced conscription in what they consider their Emirate, their numbers have probably gone up significantly.

What follows is what I believe to be their Order of Battle is. For the record, some of the sources used to put this  together are in the public domain while some are highly credible and my communication with them is and has been private.

So without further ado, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad’s  Order of Battle (OOB) seems to be:

Commencement: Artillery barrage to soften ‘the ground’ with captured Nigerian Army OTO Melara Mod 56’s 105 mm pack howitzers (very mobile units) and L16 81 mm mortars.

Not sure if there are specific instructions on how many rounds are to be fired or how long the barrage goes on for, but I think it depends on the territory BH is trying to control.

Other types of artillery weapons could also be used, but I have no evidence indicating they are. I also don’t know what BH inventory levels are, but I believe at least  as few as 5 and as many as 30 of each type of artillery weapon.

First Wave: This comes immediately after the commencement of battle. Child soldiers and new “conscripts” go into battle as ‘shock troops’ to demoralize the enemy and take out first line of already shocked defenders. They are not battle hardened and are largely undisciplined, but they are zealous and gung ho.

These units comprise of infantry and motorized infantry. Their orders are to shoot anything that moves. It is usually at this point that the Nigerian military and paramilitary troops who didn’t flee the barrage at the commencement of battle flee.

These Boko Haram fighters use rifles that have been abandoned by Nigerian troops, therefore type and ammo varies. There are about 30,000 troops in this category (20,000 of whom are child soldiers), with a few as 100-1,000 deployed at a time.

Their motorized infantry vehicles are usually Toyota Hiluxes (seized from the Nigerian Army, many in Army colours) and other pick up trucks they’ve commandeered along the way.

While many of the troops deployed by BH in this category have years of battle experience, most at the very least have numerous battles under their belts. These troops include Nigerian and foreign fighters, including Sudanese, Cameroonian, Chadians, Libyans and Nigeriens. Many of these troops are also ex-military or paramilitary.

2nd Wave: Once first wave has gone through and cleared the area, more hardened/experienced troops come in to secure the area and eliminate any perceived stragglers from the Nigerian side or from the local population.

These troops are also regular infantry, although this is where BH deploys its mechanized infantry and MBTs (Main Battle Tanks). Mechanized infantry includes about  20-30 APCs such as the Streit Spartans, Mowag Piranhas and Otokar Cobras (all taken from Nigeria’s inventory) and 1 (possibly 2) Cadillac Gage Commandos (taken from Cameroon’s inventory).

The 3-4 MBTs deployed are the T54/55s and the Vickers MBT both from Nigeria’s arsenal. I am still unsure if the Tanks are seized at the site of battle and turned on Nigerian troops, seized at the site of battle and used mainly to intimidate without being deployed, or seized and brought in from wherever BH keeps them and used for battle.

While many of the troops deployed by BH in this category have years of battle experience, most at the very least have numerous battles under their belts. These troops include Nigerian and foreign fighters, including Sudanese, Cameroonian, Chadians, Libyans and Nigeriens. Many of these troops are also ex-military or paramilitary.

Incidentally,these are the infantry troops armed with the heavy duty weapons that most associate with Boko Haram, the ones that are usually seen in Shekau’s videos.

Their firearms include the 40mm RPG-7, the 7.62mm FN Mag machine gun, the 12.7×99mm M-2 Browning and the 105mm M40 recoilless rifle. Previous stock such as the M40 came from Libya following the anti-Gadaffi uprising, but current inventory for both arms and ammunition comes from Nigerian
military stock.

The leadership cadre of this group comes from what used to be Harakatul-Muhajiriina Wal- Mujahidiin, a group that was brought under Shekau’s  Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad when he consolidated his authority earlier this year. Khalid Al-Barnawi has operational control. These troops also have military advisers sent in by Al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State.

As an aside, this is interesting because Khalid Al-Barnawi  used to lead Jamāʿatu Anṣāril Muslimīna fī Bilādis Sūdān (Ansaru) an organization closely affiliated with AQIM. When Shekau decided to eliminate Ansaru’s leadership and started doing so, Al-Barnawi fearing for his life begged AQIM to intervene on his behalf. They did this and, now he’s part of BH’s Shura again.

Also, while I’ve never been to a BH vs. Nigeria Army battle, the oft repeated line that Nigeria’s troops are under-equipped is one I personally don’t agree with. The bulk of Boko Haram’s inventory comes from Nigerian stock.

What BH does have is offensive capability in having more people, shock value in launching surprise attacks and fanatics willing to die for their cause.

What Nigeria lacks is sufficient mechanized infantry (motorized infantry is the order of the day) units, ineffective (expired) body armour, expired and insufficient ammunition, and morale busters such as expecting injured troops to take care of themselves and mass burials for killed troops.

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Mr. Aye Dee writes from New York and is an Africa & Middle East Public Policy and Security Expert. He can be reached via Twitter @MrAyeDee

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.