by Ayokunle Odekunle
So, for those already filling their glasses with Alomo bitters, clinking their glasses to say a toast for the repose of the soul of the PDP, I am sorry to disappoint you but that Umbrella will not tear…at least not yet!
I lived somewhere around Iyana Mortuary in Abeokuta at some point of my growing up. Not too far and too near from my house existed a family; a family more than the number of a football team, almost the size of a football Academy, a very noisy, rapturous and garrulous bunch who always engaged in mini-riots, major riots, brickbats and swearing competitions.
‘The Majiyagbes’, they were called.
Everyone in the neighborhood knew about the Majiyagbes. Err, let me say almost everybody knew of their existence. And who wouldn’t? The Majiyagbes were very notorious for infighting. Every day, there was almost always something to fight about. The father was either fighting his wives collectively or individually, the wives were either fighting each other individually or engage in tag fighting (Fighting in pairs). The kids who were in the lightweight category were not to be left behind. Confusion always reigned supreme. Everybody was so sure that the family would disintegrate into at least 3 factions.
But they did not.
In spite of the constant and rabid infighting between them, threats of creating different factions or acts resembling creation of different factions, they did not split. Why was this?
There was something very strong holding them together…something greater than the madness, or over-ambition of any of them. They always found a way to rally around themselves whenever the need arose.
For those already preparing to pop Champagne, Alomo bitters, or Ogidiga over the ‘breaking’ of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), I am sorry to disappoint you…You might have to wait to drink your Champagne or Alomo and you might get to never drink it.
On Saturday, 31 August 2013 while the PDP convention was going on and Abuja was literally made to stand still, a group of losers who glaringly saw that they have/had lost out in the scheming of things in the PDP decided to go somewhere else and announce a faction of their own PDP.
News filtered out that the PDP had broken up and our twitter warlords went into frenzy. To them, that is the end of the evil PDP. They reasoned aloud that with these developments, the All Progressives Congress (APC) will stroll leisurely into Aso Rock in 2015 while Mr Jonathan will go back to Otuoke and purchase a canoe so as to continue with the job of his forefathers; FISHING!
However in this piece, I will attempt to take a rather incisive and cursory look at the situation of things in the PDP. How did things get so messy? What is Atiku’s grouse? How important is Atiku in the scheme of things? Can Atiku and the 7 Governors lead to the fall of the PDP? Do they have guts or as Don Vito Corleone said in the Godfather “Does he have balls”? These amidst others are some of the issues I will attempt to address in this piece.
There is however a caveat: I will annoy many of you with this piece. In fact, I know I am annoying some of you already and you already wish you can lay your hands on me. However, if you are so angry with this piece, I expect 3 things from you:
- Write a rejoinder and join issues with me. Or go on twitter and rant about this useless boy who won’t join people in attacking the PDP
- If you do not have the intellectual wherewithal to write a rejoinder, you can copy Uncle Femi Fani-Kayode’s style by ‘hiring’ voltrons to fight on your behalf.
- Or you can vent your anger by smashing your laptop or phone or whatever you are reading this with.
Having said that, I will now go ahead and distill some issues for determination. I will also attempt to ‘lift the veil’ behind the issues for determination and decipher Why these things are happening, Who will gain from this, Which person/persons should be blamed and How to solve the impasse.
ISSUES
- What is the Background of the problems in the PDP?
- Who are those behind the new ‘PDP’ and what are their grouses?
- How powerful and relevant is Atiku now?
- Who gains most from this impasse?
- Will the PDP fall apart as a result of this?
- Who will be the greatest loser in all these?
ISSUE 1
What is the background of the current problems in the PDP?
It stems from the main fact that some people who had hitherto has unfettered access to the control of the PDP suddenly became outsiders. These group of people felt that because of the President’s perceived weakness, they will seize the party’s machinery from him and then make him to be at their mercy.
However, the President isn’t as dumb as many believe. As a President who wants a second term, he knows the importance of taking charge of the party machinery. He took effective control of the major organs of the PDP namely a) National working Committee” and b) the “Board of Trustees” of the PDP. The fact that some of these people lost out in the power game is the cause of the imbroglio that is now playing out.
ISSUE 2
Who are those behind the new faction of the PDP and what exactly is the grouse? What is the main motive behind their actions?
Spearheading the renegades is washed politician and perennial political prostitute: Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Others are the Governors of Rivers, Kwara, Adamawa, Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa and Niger States. With them is Olagusoye Oyinlola (Who has been crying since he was removed by a Court as PDP general-Secretary) and some other disgruntled but ambitious elements.
What do they want? Just one thing-POWER!
It is an open secret that Atiku wants the PDP Presidential ticket but he knows he cannot get it as long as GEJ contests against him. The same can be said of Sule Lamido of Jigawa who wants to run for President with Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate. Meanwhile, Rabiu Kwankwanso of Kano harbours the same ambition. Oyinlola has found himself consigned to the backdoor in the South West PDP and he earnestly wants to be ‘important’ again.
To achieve their aims of getting ‘POWER’, these men decided that the best option is to form another political party (PDM) and also to form a splinter group of the PDP since they know they CANNOT wrestle control of the party from the President.
Hence their decision to form a ‘parallel’ PDP which is an illegal association anyway!
ISSUE 3
Since Atiku is the main person behind this new ‘PDP’ and also the new political party ‘PDP’, how powerful is he? Is he so powerful as to successful wrestle power from a sitting President?
I am of the opinion that Atiku’s days as a politician are EFFECTIVELY OVER. He self-destructed the moment he started ‘tackling’ his boss, Olusegun Obasanjo when he was the Vice President because of his ambition to be President. This same Atiku left his party (PDP) and joined the Action Congress. When he got the ticket to fly the Action Congress’ flag as Presidential aspirant, Atiku suddenly developed diarrhea of the mouth and said many bad things against the PDP. He said he would rather die than join them again.
Fast forward some years later, Atiku in ‘limpopo’ style limped back to the PDP, ate his vomit and even licked the ground. He went back begging the same PDP he called unprintable names. On his return, he probably looked at himself and said “I should be able to defeat that clueless and shoeless man from Otuoke for the PDP Presidential ticket”. Against all common sense and without shame, Atiku contested against GEJ.
What happened afterwards can neither be called rape or consensual sex. GEJ beat daylight out of Atiku and Atiku was buried alive politically.
He has lost all relevance in the Political circles but he has failed to realize it. It is even said in some circles that Atiku cannot win an election in his local government.
I believe this conceited and delusional politician who lacks principles has no ‘powers’ neither does he have the ‘followership’ to give the PDP problems.
ISSUE 4
With keen interest, I watched one of the Twitter champions analysing on Twitter yesterday. To him, the APC will gain from the ‘factionalization’ of the PDP. I refuse to agree.
The Governors of the States who are part of the splinter groups are even Governors of the States the APC are relying on for votes. They will share the votes with the APC (votes from Kano, Kaduna, Sokoto, Borno, Zamfara) and leave GEJ’s PDP to take a clean sweep of the South East, South-South (INCLUDING RIVERS), some states in the South West (e.g Ondo, Oyo, Lagos), the Middle-Belt and some parts of the core North.
Those thinking GEJ will suffer as a result of this ‘faction’ should think again and again.
ISSUE 5
Will the PDP breakup? I don’t think so.
Inspite of the ‘faction’, I still believe that the PDP is one. Those people that formed the Splinter PDP already registered the PDM some weeks ago. I do not see them as members of the PDP any longer, I only see them as people who want to make a little noise before they finally leave the PDP.
Will the PDP miss the Governors?
NO! One thing about the PDP that people overlook is that it goes beyond a single individual. The PDP has grown to become an institution which will outlive any person at all. I know that for every PDP Governor who wants to leave the party, there are tens of very powerful PDP people in the state who will ensure that the Governor’s impact is not felt. For every Kwankwanso in Kano, you have Ahmed Makarfi, for every Rotimi Amaechi, we have Austin Opara, Nyesom Wike, Peter Odili, Abiye Sekibo and a number of very powerful PDP stalwarts. The PDP is not a one man party unlike the APC which is reliant on Bola Tinubu.
Those Governors will not be missed.
ISSUE 6
Who is the biggest loser after all these? Atiku Abubakar?? Atiku is down already and he that is down needs fear no fall. The biggest loser is Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State.
He is allowing himself to be used as a pawn in the hands of the Northerners and he will be discarded when they no more need him or the strike a deal with the President. And by then, the EFCC will be waiting for him.
WAY FORWARD
I am of the opinion that the PDP umbrella is safe and that the 7 Governors leaving the PDP will not be missed.
Like the Majiyagbe family, the PDP is a ‘coven’ and there is a very strong bond that ties the members together. It will take an effort from the Heavens before the party will split and become History. The over-ambition, over-bearing attitude or the delusion of some people will not be enough to break the PDP up.
I also believe there is still time for those 7 Governors to make peace with the President. It is a good thing that all these is happening now. It gives the party time to mend fences before elections.
So, for those already filling their glasses with Alomo bitters, clinking their glasses to say a toast for the repose of the soul of the PDP, I am sorry to disappoint you but that Umbrella will not tear…at least not yet!
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Ayokunle Odekunle, a Lagos-based lawyer tweets from @Oddy4real
Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.
Great stuff…very on-point analysis. My only concern is whether GEJ will cow to the blackmail from Atiku and his co-travellers or whether he will throw down the gauntlet, use his assets – including performing strongly in the next 24 months – and create a new, more transparent PDP.
A well analyzed and intelligent piece. The points laid out here makes the article not only readable but quite succinct. The ambition of Atiku is legendary but somehow so has his failure simply because he gets his calculations wrong. Take the 2007 elections for example, he succesfully got some governors and the south west so called desperate progressives together and formed the AC which lost woefully to he PDP even in his home state where his boy was the governor. The same will happen in Rivers. As of now, even the possibility of winning Kano and Sokoto is slim because there are strong mainstream PDP factors like Shagari and Farouk in these states. At worst PDP will still come out with 23 states
PDP is God built ….they all will rather rawth in hell.
Ayokunle let me first of comend your bold and courageous action, you said it all after tall ….its no more news that IBB Atiku and co are working hands with Tinubu Buhari bcus of some reasons pretending to be a loyal party member, I won’t say much here but just a word for the devils incarnate like them…PDP is a moving train and billions of them can not pull downthese
“For every Kwankwanso in Kano, you have Ahmed
Makarfi, for every Rotimi Amaechi, we have Austin
Opara, Nyesom Wike, Peter Odili, Abiye Sekibo
and a number of very powerful PDP stalwarts….”
This is it!
Nice piece.
The part about Ameachi and Atiku are my exact thoughts on both. As far as Nigerian politics is concerned, they are FINISHED.
However, I wont agree on the part that suggests the newly formed “PDP” wont have an effect on PDP & GEJ’s chances of re election. He and the PDP have a lot to do before 2015.
One thing is certain, the next presidential election will be one for the movie makers. May the best actor/acting group come out on top.
The PDP, ACP Or PDM are one and the same when it comes corruption. I have made up my mind months and months ago to take a seat, cross my legs with a cup of hot coffee and watch the drama unfold.
first things first, I dont reckon with cowards who hide under the cover the interner provides to appear braggadacious.
I guess youu know me and yet you are not bold enough to put your real identity up. that says a lot about your kind of person.
I am responsible for whatever I write. infact, I think, I believe and I know that I satisfy my conscience as regards my thoughts or belief. I dont give u hoot what you think about it.
on a final note, you eaised no viable or sensuble issues in your epistle. I take it that you arw a ralentless and jealous lowlife and arguing with you would be demeaning.
Lol this boy … I just pity you .. Nigerians don’t forget, by the time this country starts moving forward. I wish u can foresee what Nigerians will do to you. The attention you are seeking from GEJ and PDP is becoming too evident. I wish you know Politics is more than a child’s game, more than being just a lawyer. Gani, Falana and the likes stood for justice and they will remain in the minds of Nigerians. If all you could do is use your intelligence to support people who are milking Nigeria dry, you will def get ur share of the cake from them but trust me, you won’t eat for too long cos Nigerians are watching you. You just left law school last year and you re seeking relevance at all cost. It would have been better if u were seeking relevance with respect to Justice. In this case, you just wanna oppose the populace so you can be heard. Nice tactics but I hope it won’t burn you. Be careful Odekunle Ayokunle cos Nigerians will catch up with you with this ur showcase of ignorance with arrogance .
1) ATIKU
2) 8 PDP GOVERNORS
3) 48 PDP SENATORS
4) 167 MEMBERS OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
5) 17 MEMBERS OF THE BOT
6) 4 SERVING MINISTERS
7) 2 EX HEADS OF STATE
8) 11 FORMER PDP GOVERNORS
9) 2 FORMER NATIONAL PDP CHAIRMEN
10) 12 PDP STATE CHAIRMEN AND EXCO
11) FORMER DEFENSE CHIEF FROM TARABA STATE
PLEASE CAN ANY ONE TELL ME HOW PDP WILL SURVIVE THIS
this writer must be a joker. he should better go join them.
And I presume you where there when these people left abi? Ode
is obvious that this writer is seeking for attention. Hope he gets it? God bless Nigeria!
it is obvious that the writer is supporting the GEJ faction.this article would have been more awesome if the writer underscore the impact of the governors leaving the party and the corresponding impact on the governors and on Atiku. i think Governor Amaechi has the right of political Association so why do people say alot of things about him. is because he stood against the presidency and his wife. i think i love men with such guts ( just Ngige did to his Godfathers). i conclude here that this writer is just a political affiliate of the PDP controlled by GEJ. good piece though but a good writer and reporter will balance both sides not embrace one side. writer please always balance your argument if you are not politically affiliated and if you are i think you should state before you start writing else were. i read this writers article on ScooopNg is the same way he supports the PDP and writes anything for them no matter how bad the situation is. writer, please help revolutionize NIGERIA WITH YOUR ARTICLES not join the train of PDP and do same thing. we need this kind of power of writing to let our politicians know that we the youth are still here and we need to take control of the polity. In a new height of ineptitude, Mr GEJ is overseeing the biggest and most significant internal wrangling within the PDP. where a chunk of Governors are openly in rebellion. this isn’t the individual Nigerians would like to vote in 2015. for those Governors and Atiku who create parties , recreate and cross carpet. it is obvious that their ambitions cannot be met in this PDP dispensation, they should reconcile and exercise patience for another opportunity and Nigerians cant keep voting recycled cross carpeted politicians each election period. GEJ PUT your house in order no matter what your Ambitions are. Atiku , you are one of the most senior member, be an elder and dont let things spoil. we are waiting for 2015 to see how strong APC is oust your party. we are waiting and Nigerians are watching
Oddy, pls wake up maybe u think u’re still in mayflower school where morafa controls all, PDP is gone for good
but what does Mayflower or Morafa have to do with this?
The Spirit of God does not lie. This is exactly my view. Well captured.
.
Brillant write-up. One of the best I have read this year
it seems the writer does not know the importance of numbers in politics. 7 governors does not just mean 7 people. Or maybe he is one of the people being used to strategize for 2015 rigging?
Very good piece…..aptly couched!
It is like we both read the same book last night. I opined that Amaechi is finished politically and cannot win any election in Nigeria. Same goes for Atiku. They have no followings and the best they could have done is to either join APC and remain in the third tier of affairs there or work to reconcile themselves within the PDP.
Nice and very brilliantly well written.
One9jaboi
Ayokunle oh, I like your ‘bold’ assertions…how will a party not miss 7 whole governors? And Atiku may be a little bit out of the scheme of things, he is not washed…PDP will rather have him as an ally than an opponent, same goes for the governors. I concede that defeating Jonathan seems like a herculean task but it is definitely not impossible. My candid advice to PDP which I think you should include is find aa way to assauge the feelings of the splinter group and make them a part of the larger family. These. Governors are from the North which includes where IBB, AbdulSalam are from (very influential), they have not mentioned anything to show where their support lies, Obasanjo has publicly endorsed Jigawa governor, he seems to be on gej’s side acting father to all but he’s a crafty old man. Annenih said ‘ If ibb, abdulsalam and obj dines together, he’ll go to sleep and gej will win, it underscores their importance. I think it might be a little too early for pdp, tukur and jonathan to be grandstanding. An amaechi harrassed jonathan badly, 7 governors can do more politically.
i quite disagree with many of your points though
Brillant. Breathtaking