by Chris Okotie

The state of emergency in the North-East and the accompanying military operations in that axis have the potential to adversely affect economic activities generally, including agricultural production and food prices as well as consumer demand. 

Mali has made a peace deal with the Tuareg separatist rebels which hopefully will pave the way for lasting peace and order to return to the troubled country. In Nigeria, President Goodluck Jonathan has made overtures to the Boko Haram insurgents to end the three-year war they have levelled against this country, but the insurgents have rebuffed every olive branch dangled by the federal government.

So, now the question: What does Boko Haram want? This question becomes pertinent after they resumed their attacks in a more ruthless fashion, when the government’s military offensive against them abated. The insurgents have invaded primary schools, killing scores of children and their teachers in savage attacks that must not escape the radar of the International Criminal Court, ICC, which someday may summon these guys to answer for their crime against humanity. Terror groups elsewhere do not target children or schools the way Boko Haram is doing.

Apart from the estimated 5,000 deaths recorded in attacks by various terror groups, including the military offensive, the cost to our already dysfunctional economy is unbearable. The Nigerian led African intervention force spearheaded by France when Mali was about to fall to advancing Tuareg rebels, to save that country from being seized by the Al-Qaeda back rebels.

The Nigerian government made that timely move because it was reported that the Boko Haram insurgents were involved in the broad coalition of terror groups in the Islamic Mahgreb, who were helping the Tuaregs to try and topple the Malian government. The French-led rescue force arrived to push back the rebels when they were about to storm the Malian capital, Bamako.

The Nigerian military operations in Mali cost this country millions of dollars. This is no wasteful spending considering the pre-emptive nature of the intervention. The anti-terror war against Boko Haram , MEND and other armed groups is taking a heavy toll on our finances. Just recently, the Central Bank Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, advised the Jonathan Administration to resist the temptation to overspend on the current military operations in Yobe, Adamawa and Borno states because of its dire implications for the economy.

Sanusi said: ”The committee noted with caution the high gross domestic product growth projection in view of the extant risk factors such as widespread insecurity, weak infrastructure and probable flooding from the projected heavy rains in some parts of the country.”

The state of emergency in the North-East and the accompanying military operations in that axis have the potential to adversely affect economic activities generally, including agricultural production and food prices as well as consumer demand. The economy of the north has virtually collapsed because of Boko Haram activities.

Let us pray that the Mali peace holds together. But there’s the larger threat of prolonged instability in the entire Sahel region, where Al-Qaeda’s influence appears to be growing. Though seriously weakened after the killing of Osama Bin Ladin and some of his key lieutenants by U.S forces, the terrorist network appears to be regaining capacity with the enlisting of regional terror groups like Boko Haram, the Tuareg islamists and Al-Shabbab of Somalia into its ranks.

The Arab Spring has created a new wave of instability in the Middle East. Several splinter groups fighting in Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria and Egypt are now in possession of heavy weapons. With the war not fully over in places like Libya where remnants of pro-Gaddafi forces have retreated to the deserts and villages up north, there are chances that Al-Qaeda could infiltrate those guerrilla forces and launch terror wars in vulnerable states of Sub-Sahara and East Africa.

Therefore, beyond our successful peace-keeping efforts in Mali, the federal government must begin to fashion out a comprehensive long-term anti-terrorist strategy to checkmate likely extension of an international terror campaign to Nigeria. We cannot be sure that the peace process in Mali will last, given the experience of Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood government was toppled. To this end, President Goodluck Jonathan must begin to think outside the box concerning our country’s long-term security because ultimately, we can’t depend on foreign super powers to protect our territory.

Although no one doubts the belligerence capability of the Nigerian Armed Forces, its track record in the local fight against Boko Haram shows that they do not have the expertise in this highly specialised, sophisticated war against terrorism.

Unlike Mali and the Ivory Coast which still enjoy some political affinity with France, we have no such strong defence ties with Britain or the United States that could prompt a direct military intervention from them if our country’s security is in such a grave danger.

Even though the commander of the U.S African High Command, AFRICOM, Gen. Carter Ham has visited this country twice in the last twelve months in the wake of the Boko Haram insurgency, nothing concrete has come out of those visits beyond some feeble pledges to help Nigeria. AFRICOM, meanwhile, is based in Stuttgart, Germany, not on African soil.

Like Paul Collier of the Oxford University said: “Europe is still willing to kill for Africa, but its militaries have no appetite to die for Africa”. President Jonathan must find a way to benefit from America’s know-how in counter-terrorism warfare either through technical assistance, training of our forces or direct military cooperation without compromising the sovereignty of our country.

 

————————————

Read this article on the Nation Newspapers

 

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.