Hounge: Nigeria – The looming war scenario (Y! Superblogger)

Seun Hunge Superblogger

Let’s not be bad students of history, we are yet to fully recover from the effects of Biafra war. The ripple effects of a war are far reaching; the principal actors themselves won’t believe how far it will go.

In the last couple of years, the drumbeats of war and separation has been pretty loud in this country. Some would even allude to the fact that more military bases are being created, as a sign that we are silently preparing for a separation. Many people are beginning to call for dissolution of this marriage of convenience which was solemnized by British Colonialists in 1914. Before this marriage, the Berlin Conference of 1884 had wreaked havoc on Africa. Europe drew lines across Africa, these lines became borders dividing people of same language, culture and norms into various countries, kith and kin now need passport and visa to visit each other.

Four major republics are being touted to come out of Nigeria: Niger-Delta Republic, Oduduwa Republic, Arewa Republic and Middle Belt Republic. Interesting proposition, I must say but my dear readers, if we must achieve this, it’s in our best interest not to use war as a means of actualizing this. We already have enough problems bedeviling us, a war would only compound our issues and it could take a whole generation before lasting peace is found because within these republics, there are minority ethnicities that would also start calling for independence also.

Now, imagine we allow things degenerate and eventually go into full scale war to effect this divorce, allow me paint you various pictures of what will happen:

Nigeria is by far the biggest economy in West Africa, most multinationals that ran to Ghana to manufacture their goods, still send them back here for sale. Our closest neighbours are; Benin Republic on the West, Niger and Chad in the North and Cameroun on the East. These countries have strong trade ties with us; most of our Sallah rams come from countries up North, fruits and other consumables come from our western neighbours, etc. Now, the population of these countries can easily be dwarfed by that of few states in Nigeria. We start a war, a refugee situation arises immediately, and these neighbours will automatically shut their borders in the name of preventing the influx of arms into their country and the escalation of fighting. We are already trapped.

If we are even allowed into various countries in Africa, can their social amenities support the sudden increase in population? There are about 20 million people in Lagos state alone, at one million per African country, imagine its effect. An average Nigerian is proud, the ‘Do you know who I am?’ feeling is engraved in our psyche. You can only imagine what that kind of attitude would fetch in a country that has grudgingly accepted your refugee status and its citizens don’t necessarily like you. We like to be seen and be known which will be counter-productive in a country of reserved and quiet folks.

Let’s not be bad students of history, we are yet to fully recover from the effects of Biafra war. The ripple effects of a war are far reaching; the principal actors themselves won’t believe how far it will go. A most recent effect of a war is Libya. The entire Sahel is paying for Ghadaffi’s ouster now. Boko Haram in Nigeria didn’t have access to Improvised Explosive Device (IEDs) until that war. Mercenaries fleeing Libya were the ones that “gingered the swagger” of ethnic militias in Mali. Niger is now feeling the brunt of counterterrorism efforts in Mali and North East Nigeria. Who is next?

I believe by now, we have all gotten the picture. A war in Nigeria will adversely affect we the ordinary citizens; those of us who do not have dual citizenship or even a passport not to talk about a visa. Don’t let anyone hoodwink you into calling for a war of separation, if we must separate, then we should negotiate it like we negotiated our independence.

Another solution is that we fashion out our own democracy and quit following the western model. We don’t share history and heritage with the West, why must we take in their democratic ideals hook, line and sinker?

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Hounge is a polyglot, savvy, cosmopolitan, and eccentric. He blogs at www.hounge.wordpress.com

 

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

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