by Michael Orodare

The great Emperor Jagaban and the tiny god of Southwest Nigeria, who rose to become a commanding force in Nigerian politics through public acceptance and sympathy,intoxicated by populism, wealth and power, is now witnessing what economists describe as the law of diminishing return.

“They say I’m a godfather and I pick candidates, ask them if they were the one who picked Adams, Fayemi, Fashola, Aregbesola and others who are doing fine for me.”

Those were the words of power and wealth drunk Emperor Jagaban at the grand finale of the defunct ACN campaign rally ahead of the Ondo governorship election in 2012, where Tinubu jettisoned issue based campaign for personal grudge against Mimiko. You may never see some of those unprintable words at the campaign in the media anyway.

The great Emperor Jagaban and the tiny god of Southwest Nigeria, who rose to become a commanding force in Nigerian politics through public acceptance and sympathy,intoxicated by populism, wealth and power, is now witnessing what economists describe as the law of diminishing return.

The Edo and Ondo governorship elections in 2012 and the recent Ekiti guber poll have now made it very clear to all that with an efficient and dedicated security, committed INEC personnel, vigilant polling agents, and electorates determined to make their votes count, the traditional strategy of rigging elections (2011 Lagos State Local Government Election as a case study) have been thwarted.

This new system seems to be posing a great threat to the empire of Emperor Jagaban and its now on the verge of total crumble. The electorates are now wiser, propaganda and falsehoods don’t win elections again. Like I always argue, if propaganda win elections, then by now Mimiko should be in his home in Ondo town and not at the Government House, Akure again, and Fayemi would probably still be in jubilation mood by now, celebrating his re-election victory.

After the ACN waterloo in Ondo in 2012, one would have expected the APC leader to do a proper self-assessment of himself and his old winning formula which failed to yield result in Ondo state. There’s no guarantee that a strategy which recorded great success in 2003 will bring 50% success in 2013, to everything there is time and season. Gone are those days of imposition of candidates, the electorates are patiently waiting to embarrass you with votes. It also seems Jagaban’s advisers are either on sabbatical or happy with the systematic descent of Jagaban’s empire into a state of abyss. Napoleon Bonaparte was very right when he said “the people to fear are not those who disagree with you, but those who disagree with you and are too cowardly to let you know.”

With Ekiti gone, and Ondo never captured, we don’t need a witchdoctor to tell us one or two more states presently under the empire of Emperor Jagaban will be lost before or during the next general elections. But the emerging political leaders in the Southwest waiting to take the baton from Jagaban must learn from the mistakes of Jagaban and Adedibu. People can hardly draw a difference between the two godfathers who have controlled and directed the fortunes of the region between 1999 and 2015 (when the APC dominance of the region will finally cease to be). Both men were coercive leaders and that is not the kind of self-imposed political leaders the Southwest hopes to look forward to again in the coming political dispensation.

Congratulations to the people of Osun state, this is their season of ‘bumper harvest’, the Ekiti election tsunami has opened doors of cash flow for them, from now till August 9th, billions of naira will make way into the state for their spurious inducement to enable the sitting APC-government hopefully retain its seat and avoid a repeat of the Ekiti fiasco. But to the ever conscious and alert people of Osun, I say these monies belong to you so don’t dull yourselves, collect them, clean your mouth and vote for a change. After all that is what they preach, Change! Let the change begin from their stronghold.

 

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Michael Olanrewaju Orodare has worked in the Office of the Chief Press Secretary to the Ondo State Governor as a Media Assistant. He has garnered experience writing in the The Nation Newspaper working with the paper’s Sunday Desk. He leans towards the Labour Party. He blogs at www.michaelorodare.blogspot.com and tweets from @MichaelOrodare

 

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