Tambuwal cannot be President but what next for him? || @amasonic analyses

by Mark Amaza

After more than a year of speculations, it does seem that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal might have finally pitched his tent with the opposition All Progressives’ Congress (APC), judging by his meeting on Monday with the stakeholders of the party in his native Sokoto State. After all, only a fellow member will be part of such a meeting.

For far too long, Tambuwal has been dilly-dallying on when, not if, he crosses the political aisle. For starters, his election to the 4th highest position in the land was an act of rebellion, as the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) had zoned the seat to the South-West. He had teamed up with other rebellious PDP members (most of them first-termers and young) and the opposition to defeat the establishment candidate.

Candidly, the Presidency is out of his reach. Not only does he lack the breadth of national appeal, he is up against political giants in the APC: former Head of State Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

He has also constantly been a thorn in the side of his party – whether it is criticizing the President in his presence at a budget presentation of not implementing the budget or refusing to show up at party meetings, Tambuwal has been the classic rebel with a cause. To the PDP, it will be good riddance.

However, it does seem he has taken so long to formally decamp for fear of losing his seat as the Speaker. During the spate of defections in the National Assembly last year, it was speculated that he will decamp once the APC had formed the majority in the House. That way, he will be able to retain his position, but sadly, this has not come to be.

He has also been linked almost perpetually as a potential presidential candidate for APC, pushed especially by those who want to see a generational shift in those running for the Presidency. There are also rumors that he has his eye on the Sokoto State Government House, especially as the incumbent, Aliyu Magatakarda Wammako is concluding his second term last year.

So what are the options before Tambuwal?

Candidly, the Presidency is out of his reach. Not only does he lack the breadth of national appeal, he is up against political giants in the APC: former Head of State Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. The battle for who shall be the flag-bearer of the party come February next year shall be a two-horse race. His only chance is if a candidate such as Buhari who commands a large following in the party steps down and endorses him, but the chances of that happening are very slim.

The governorship is by far a more realistic option for the speaker. Not only is his governor also an APC member, he is said to also have an excellent relationship with him, which puts him in good stead for the ticket. Additionally, the deputy governor, Mukhtar Shagari had not decamped to the APC with his boss in November last year, and is very likely to be the PDP candidate.

[Shagari was the PDP candidate in 2007 until he was asked to step down for Wammako, then deputy governor to Attahiru Bafarawa who had decamped from the ANPP and was a crowd favorite. He has bided his time to take his shot at the office and it is highly unlikely he will be denied this opportunity.]

Should Tambuwal win, he can then use his time in office to work towards taking a shot at the Presidency in 2023, when he will be finishing his second term, if he wins re-election in 2019. He has the advantage of age; he is currently 48 years and will be 57 years old by 2023.

But one thing for certain: his time as a PDP member is over and that handwriting is very clear on the wall for him to see.

It remains to see what his final decision shall be.

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One comment

  1. This sounds more like a PDP-sponsored article than a news item. “But one thing for certain: his time as a PDP member is over and that handwriting is very clear on the wall for him to see.” For him to see? Me thinks it should have been “for everyone to see” cos he is the one leaving the party not the other way round. Whatever the writer may have against Tambuwal, one cannot deny his leadership qualities.
    He still have a lot to offer this country and the ultimate loser is the PDP

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