Last week, Nigeria celebrated 55 years of her independence from the British and it was yet another a moment to lament our missed opportunities of economic progress. But were we at war, we would have no country to celebrate.

Sadly at a time when Nigerians should unite to confront our challenges, the unity and peace of our dear country is increasingly threatened by ethnic bashing on the social media. Although, whether these loud bigoted folks are a fair representation of Nigerians is debatable but indisputably, they signal that we’re quite far from nationhood.

 

Ethnic bigotry hardly exists in a vacuum; it is often a product of ignorance and bad governance, and as George Santayana famously put it, “those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Unfortunately, majority of us don’t know Nigeria’s history, let alone the history of the world. Even when we do, we either learn the wrong lessons or fail to do the hard work of making sure we don’t repeat past failures. Perhaps we did learn the right lessons; recent trend however suggests that we are now beginning to forget them.

 

I remember reading The State of Africa by Martin Meredith and chapter 27 of the book, which was titled ‘the graves are not yet full’ — message broadcasted by Radio Mille Collines inciting the killing of Tutsis — was such a chilling read on the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Of course, present day Nigeria is not anything close to Rwanda of 1994 as we are creditably a stable democracy.

But it would be naïve to think such barbarity cannot happen when we have an irresponsible elite that is always ready to cross the line of decency to achieve political gains and like Martin Meredith pointed out in his book,“the genocide that followed was caused not by ancient ethnic antagonism but by a fanatical elite engaged in a modern struggle for power and wealth using ethnic antagonism as their principal weapon.”

Supporting Meredith’s verdict, academics — Ibrahim Elbadawi & Nicholas Sambanis, 2000. Why Are There So Many Civil Wars in Africa? Understanding and Preventing Violent Conflict; David Laitin & James Fearon, 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War; Taydas Zeynep et al., 2010. Why Do Civil Wars Occur? — have shown that contrary to popular belief, civil wars in Africa are not simply a result of ethnic and religious diversity but due to government’s corruption and incompetence which ultimately breeds poverty and resentment, political instability, failed government institutions, slow economic growth and dependence on commodity export.

Weak protection of property rights, rough terrains, large population and external financing are other factors that increase the risk of civil wars.

However, when leaders fail or are faced with political difficulty, they often resort to ethnic and religious sentiments to cling onto power. As Professor Wole Soyinka said in a 2013 interview: “Wherever you witness a case of ‘It’s MINE, and no other’s’, ‘it’s OURS, not theirs’, at various levels of vicarious ownership, such aggressive voices, ninety percent of the time, are bound to Nigerians. This is a syndrome I have had cause to confront decisively with hundreds of Africans and non-Africans. It is what plagues Nigeria at the moment – it’s MY/OUR turn to rule, and if I/WE cannot, we shall lay waste the terrain.” Quite unfortunately, we saw this ugly trend play out in the last general elections but thankfully, commonsense prevailed.  

 

Recently, Femi Fani-Kayode, a former minister and lawyer, foolishly referred to an ethnic group as tsetse fly, locust and leeches. Sadly, more of such hate speeches by prominent citizens will only drive Nigeria to the precipice of another civil war. History has however shown that leaders who instigate civil wars are often ready to flee to safety, leaving their lieutenants to bear the consequences. Mariam Mengistu found asylum in Zimbabwe, Idi Amin fled into exile in Libya, Charles Taylor sought refuge in Nigeria while Michel Djotodia fled the Central Africa Republic for Benin Republic.

In Rwanda, Madame Agathe Kazinga, her children and members of Habyarimana’s clique including Professor Ferdinand Nahimana, the director of Radio Mille Collines, who was responsible for organizing hate broadcasts, all fled Rwanda on the first French flight out of Kigali. Even Nnamdi Kanu, the recent crusader for the State of Biafra who continues to exploit the misfortune of some of his kinsmen, is safely tucked in London.

 

It is important for Nigerians to understand that long notices are not issued before civil wars are fought. Once the conditions that favour insurgencies are present, they are often triggered by the slightest of issues.

The ongoing war in Syria is sadly an example. 4 years of drought from 2006 to 2010 caused thousands of Syrian farmers to lose their means of livelihood and consequently, many of them fled to the cities in search of greener pastures. Resultantly, this influx increased competition — with Palestinians and Iraqi refugees — for unavailable jobs and severely short food supplies and thus, heightening social tension. In March 2010, some teenagers were arrested and tortured for painting revolutionary slogans on a school war. Protests to free them were however met with a brutal response by the Assad regime, triggering nationwide protests.

 

What began as a food and water crisis in Syria not only metamorphosed into a full-scale civil war that has so far left over 200,000 people dead, 7.6 million people internally displaced and 4 million people refugees across the Middle East and Europe but also created a conducive environment for Islamic State, ISIS, to establish its reign of terror across Northern and Eastern Syria. Furthermore, Syria has now become another battleground for the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, just as the United States and Russia are set to renew their diplomatic tussle.

Fellow citizens, once a war starts, no one can tell when and how it will end. Beyond the palpable infrastructure ruin, another major consequence of war is that human resources, which is easily the most important asset of poor states is lost as middle class folks migrate to safe havens. The perilous trip to Europe, which cost thousands of US dollars, can only be afforded by Syrians who live above the poverty line. Given our huge infrastructure and knowhow deficit, Nigeria cannot afford another civil war.

 

Government’s ability to ensure accountability and administer justice is indispensable to its survival. The failure to punish criminals, especially the rich and senior public officials, creates a culture of impunity that constitutes a threat to national security.

Government therefore has a duty to ensure that the environment is not conducive for insurrections. Restoring fiscal federalism will no doubt speed up development and perhaps reduce inter-ethnic tensions. But given the present configuration of the National and State Assemblies, this cannot happen straightaway as getting the required number to amend the constitution is near impossible. To start with, an economic plan to address the poor revenue-base of states is needed.

 

Furthermore, research has found that the risk of civil war is proportional to the size of the population. Hence, government must aggressively pursue the objectives of the 2004 National Policy for Sustainable Development, which includes reducing total fertility rate to 4.0 and population growth rate to 2.0%, and extending family planning services to 80% of women of child-bearing age.

 

To arrest bigotry, we must be aware of the danger of a single story and thus make efforts to understand different perspectives. Clearly, Mark Twain was right: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”

And perhaps you think he was wrong, you definitely cannot fault the words of Maya Angelou: “Perhaps travel cannot prevent bigotry, but by demonstrating that all people cry, laugh, eat, worry, and die, it can introduce the idea that if we understand each other, we may even become friends.”

 

Like Germans did after the World Wars, we have to confront our history, reconcile with the past and must not be blind to the present. Going forward, we must teach in schools the history of the civil war; not with the aim to vilify any ethnic group but to make us resolve not to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Nonetheless, the Nigeria State should conduct a referendum should any ethnic group, via their elected representatives, insist on secession. The Nigerian constitution however needs to be amended to allow for referendums. Never again should we allow another Asaba Massacre in the name of One Nigeria.

 

Watching rich European countries struggle with the Syria refugee crisis leaves me wondering how poor African nations will handle the fallout of a Nigerian civil war. Fellow citizens, we must always remember that the graves are not yet full and won’t ever be full.

—————-

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija

 

Lanre Asiwaju tweets from @lenin4real