by Simon Utsu

Mid last year, shortly after the principal officers in the  8th Senate had been chosen via the infamous election that produced Saraki as the Senate President, I did a short write-up which I titled “THE LOCAL KING-KONG”.

That article was a sort of political ‘dirge’ for Tinubu- who had just been annihilated in his first post-Buhari presidency game of political chess at the Federal level. The write-up didn’t go down well with some people very close to me, because to them, I was being very disrespectful to Tinubu, who they were fond of.

But in that write-up, I was saying the plain truth, as I had seen or was foreseeing. Fast forward to September 2016, about three more heavyweight political battles after, I’m yet to be proven wrong- Tinubu has been floored in everyone of them.

In the first proxy battle where Tinubu squared up against ‘Turakin’ Atiku, the pawns were Saraki(Atiku’s) and Ahmed Lawan(Tinubu’s). The result in this case wasn’t a close one because Atiku who is a veteran of the game at the national level outsmarted the more regional oriented Tinubu even before the starting whistle was blown.

Atiku easily won this one as his pawn, Saraki emerged victorious without much sweat. Tinubu didn’t have much time to lick the wounds of the defeat he suffered in this battle because there was another one at hand- quite close-by.

Next stop was the proxy battle for the soul of the leadership of the lower Federal house. Here, Tinubu was pitched against a relative newcomer; Aminu Tambuwal. Tinubu had helped Tambuwal attain the speakership of the lower house in 2011 and expected Tambuwal who was now Sokoto state governor(but still had a strong influence on the house members) to support his choice; Femi Gbaja. But Tambuwal had other plans.

In the closely contested battle between their proxies, Tambuwal’s protégé, Dogara emerged victorious by the whiskers. This defeat was less consequential than the first but more painful because it was a close call.

Next stop, Kogi. Tinubu’s political son James Faleke and running mate to Prince Audu was legally and naturally supposed to take over the vacant mandate after Audu died in questionable circumstances but the Abuja APC power bloc drafted in a Yahaya Bello out of obscurity to scupper Tinubu’s chances and usurp his choice, albeit controversially.

Back then, it was alleged that Yahaya’s backing came directly from the Presidency so it’s safe to say this third major battle was between Tinubu and the Presidency.

Then the fourth major battle was that of last Saturday where Tinubu came up against a conglomerate made up of some of his estranged political sons and a couple of renegades politicians in the Generation after him viz Amosun, Fashola, Fayemi, Amaechi, El Rufai and most surprisingly, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola.

This battle was more or less a regional one but there was much ego at stake. It was the battle to produce the party’s(APC) flagbearer for the upcoming Ondo Gubernatorial race. The signs of an insurrection were there months before the primaries but Tinubu who has a vice-like grip on the party in the southwest did his homework to the best of his ability.

He then jetted abroad to observe the outcome probably because he was too tense to do so from his Lagos base. The outcome again was negative; fourth knockout in a row for Tinubu. His candidate Segun Abraham polled 635 votes whilst his former protégé, Rotimi ‘Aketi’ Akerodolu, whom he had openly campaigned against polled 669 votes.

This was painfully close especially if we consider the fact that Sola Oke who came in a close third(576) was bankrolled by Tinubu’s hitherto, every loyal ally- Ogbeni Aregbesola. If Only 40 of Sola’s delegates had gone to Abraham, he would have easily won Aketi who was bankrolled by the conglomerate I mentioned earlier.

Let me conclude by advising Asiwaju to go out of circulation for a while, say one year or better still, avoid going into any major political battle for another year. He should by all means avoid trying to influence the outcome of any serious election in that period.

By going under for a while, he’s going get his fans and foes alike wondering what he has up his sleeves; he should also come up with a new winning strategy. Tinubu is feared and respected more than he is loved.

He has been able to use his power and wealth to rally his kinsmen over the decades because of Yoruba cultural values which usually breeds unquestionable respect for local  leadership but on the National stage, cultural values differ so his autocratic and domineering style(which is a stark contrast to the democratic and more people oriented styles of Awo and MKO) isn’t working for him.

Tinubu should adopt a new winning strategy in time for the 2018 make or mar Osun and Ekiti Governorship elections.

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Op–ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija

Simon Utsu tweets @simonchairman