by Tokunbo Olateru-Olagbegi

Looking at all the political parties involved in this development, there is nothing ideological about them – this not to say the PDP also represent any form of ideology really.

It appears some major opposition figures ‘bent solely’ on wrestling power from the ruling PDP have by a ‘marriage of convenience’ succeeded in agreeing to forming what may likely be a major opposition political party that will contest the 2015 general elections (beginning from 2014). They might have agreed to a name which has become a public knowledge, but they still have to cross the hurdle of entire section 84 of the Electoral Act (as amended, 2011) before it becomes a registered and legal political party. This electoral provision will be analyzed in this piece for the benefit of those who may not find time to examine that section of our electoral law. So at its best, APC still remains a mere association of political parties seeking to merge into one (amalgamation of some political interests if you may say). A friend jokingly asked me a few hours after the name was made public if APC means Armored Personnel Carrier. Another also retorted that he expects Obasanjo to very soon rename them Alliance of Progressive Corruption (APC). The days ahead will be very interesting.

One interesting angle to this ‘proposed merger’ is the absence of Gov. Olusegun Mimiko who against all conspiracies survived the onslaught of opposition parties in Ondo State and their collective sponsors, especially in the Southwest. His Labour Party is not involved in this fiasco of a merger. I am not a pessimist by using that word, Nigeria needs a vibrant opposition party, which can provide a better alternative to PDP (if any), but the history and antecedents of these parties coming together and the characters of the players says much. When you properly examine and dissect this ‘proposed merger,’ your literature review, will reveal that the outcome of this political experiment may be dead on arrival. I will still give them a benefit of doubt as a human being. But certainly in the Southwest, it is going to be a different ball game because the man of the moment, Mimiko is not part of the scheming. I will come back to this later.

Looking at all the political parties involved in this development, there is nothing ideological about them – this not to say the PDP also represent any form of ideology really. Probably, only LP revolves around an ideological movement based on its founding principles. For ‘APC’, except by a collective resolve to dislodge the PDP, the orientations of the characters involved do no align a bit. So many hurdles to cross by these political fellows and it do not seem they have the attitude to weather the gathering storm. Definitely not an association formed to rescue the common man, but how to control the purse of governance. The people know these characters and they will be watching keenly, how they intend to succeed in this regard. It will be a plus for democracy if they progress beyond 2015, but nothing suggest to this judging by history. With the exception of ACN and CPC whose leaders and followers are deeply involved, ANPP and APGA will have to battle internal interest to succeed. Judging by a mandatory convention that each party must hold, APGA as it stands today will not eventually be a part of that merger, while ANPP will have to further walk the talk – it is a 50-50 situation.

By virtue of Section 84 of the Electoral Act, it is still a merger without legal backing and at best, a merger without merger. According this legal provision – (1) Any two or more registered political parties may merge on approval by the commission (INEC) following a formal request presented to the commission by the political parties for that purpose. (2) Political Parties intending to merge shall each give to the commission, 90 days notice of their intention to do so before a general election. (3) The written request for merger shall be sent to the Chairman of the commission and shall be signed jointly by the National Chairman, Secretary and Treasurer for the time being of the different political parties proposing merger and shall be accompanied by : (a) a special resolution passed by the National Convention of each of the political parties proposing to merge, approving the merger; (b) the proposed full name and acronym, constitution, manifesto, symbol or logo of the party together with the addresses of the National office of the party resulting from merger; and (c) evidence of payment of administrative costs of N100, 000 or as may be fixed from time to time by an Act of the National Assembly.

(4) On receipt of the request for merger of political parties, the commission shall consider the request; and if the parties have fulfilled the requirements of the Constitution and this Act, approve the proposed merger and communicate its decision to the parties concerned before the expiration of 30 days from the date of the receipt of formal request.  PROVIDED, that if the commission fails to communicate its decision within 30 days, the merger shall be deemed to be effective. (5) Where the request for the proposed merger is approved, the commission shall forthwith withdraw and cancel the certificates of registration of all the political parties opting for the merger and substitute therefore, a single certificate of registration in the name of the party resulting from the merger. (6) Notwithstanding the provisions of subsection (2) of this section, no merger of political parties received by the commission less than 90 days before any general election in the country shall be considered by the commission It is assumed that all the 10 governors and political parties that gathered in Lagos, are aware of these provisions in the Electoral Act. However, this is the least of the barriers they must cross. The most challenging will be the vested interest of individuals and small powerful groups (caucus within caucus) that will emerge. The journey ahead will be interesting and I can tell my media family to be ready for drama to report. How sincere are the characters involved?  or their ideologies I say it time and time over again, no political party can stop the  PDP from winning at the presidential polls, not because of the incumbency factor or the control of the security forces and the INEC but rather because of the insincerity of the opposition. They are never formidable in their exact purpose to unseat the PDP, the anchor promoters of this party Buhari and Tinubu should know better, Buhari was a victim to the shenanigans in the ANPP in 2003 and 2007, Tinubu should not be quick to forget how  he sold out on Ribadu for a morsel of the national cake(rumored), the PDP knowing the insincerity of the leaders of the political class (including themselves) in Nigeria, there is always an offer on the table for the leaders of the party, who would always sell out on the candidate in order not to totally loose out,  and these leaders are found in the very foundation of the APC, like former LAPD detective  Mark Fuhrman said in his book, Murder in Brentwood: “when sincerity fails, the offer of money usually works”. Indeed, a common unabashed recurring decimal in the political class.

With the merger one would believe that with the diversity of the stakeholders, electoral victory would be promising, but there are far more problematic issues in managing the merger, than even having a consensus candidate amidst them. Is there an understanding between them as to who would be the gubernatorial candidate of the APC in the Anambra later this year or in Ekiti and in Osun States? Would the flag bearer come from the ACN, ANPP, APGA, CPC wing of the merger? Can they conveniently be matured in settling a bit of these problems? Are the people comfortable with these leaders taking us to the Promised Land? What criteria would be used for an emerging flag bearer, would it be by imposition – their trademark, consensus or delegate primaries, with ACN having the upper hand in terms of funding and numerical advantage of stakeholders? Several questions are begging for answers and many more ahead.

It is also pertinent to note bad leadership, which arises from godfatherism which has robbed and still robbing many states of good leadership. With the godfatherism factor and imposition tendency, will this merger not bring a major political implosion never witnessed in the political history of Africa? Gladly, Labour Party has set a standard, that only the best is good for the people and not the dictate of any political warlord. No matter the number of Armored Personnel Carrier these old wines are lining up, it is only the wish of the people that will prevail. The power of propaganda is waning. Definitely Iroko’s second term tick has ab initio threatened the emergence of APC, that only what you have on the table in terms of democracy dividends will sail. Even at that, no party today can make any meaningful in road in the Southwest without consulting Mimiko. This is a big minus of this ‘emergency merger project.’ The overture currently being made by the likes of Aregbesola and others is late in the day. Like in one of my writings, I have made it clear that the ACN entered the contest in Ondo State without an eye on the future. There will be a payback time. Surely this is a merger without the inclusion of a major political force in the Southwest. Definitely the Labour Party and the towering political ideologies of Iroko is a threat and this merger has continually made him a bride many would want to court, The APC has no doubt has come to stay but one thing you can never wish away from the son of Mimiko and the Labour Party, is their unrelentless belief and hope in a political conquest at any level because their faith in the will of the people, which would always prevail regardless of political structures or funding if you are a good candidate, tested and trusted with people oriented projects as is been the case in Ondo State.

Time surely will tell.

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Prince Tokunbo Olateru-Olagbegi: London born, Lagos bred Prince Toks is a PR and Brand Consultant with over ten years experience in marketing, government relations; conflict resolution and strategy. He has an intimate knowledge of grassroots issues and possesses strong linkages and familiarity with key leaders and government functionaries at the highest levels. A skilled negotiator and rapport-builder, Prince Toks was a member of the Olusegun Mimiko Campaign Organisation and the Team Leader of the Talk 2 Mimiko Initiative. He is a graduate of the University of Lagos and is a Member of the Nigeria Institute of Management. He is a registered member of the Labour Party

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.