Simon Kolawole: Wars and rumours of war

by Simon Kolawole

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To the Junaids, my advice is if you don’t want Jonathan, vote against him. No Northerner should be intimidated about whom they choose to support. A Northern governor said recently that he had the list of 400 Northern leaders who are working against “Northern interest”, a euphemism for “supporting Jonathan”. This is nonsense.

Junaid Muhammed has said it. Asari Dokubo has said it. There will be sorrow, tears and blood if their part of the country does not produce the winner of the 2015 presidential election. There will be weeping and wailing and mourning and gnashing of teeth. It is becoming clearer and clearer by the day that some people cannot just stomach democracy. We describe democracy as “one person one vote”, but to the Junaids and the Dokubos, it is “one man one machete” and “one man one gun”. It is either the candidate from their ethnic group wins or Nigeria will roast! All my life, I have never seen politics being played like this in Nigeria. Ethnic sentiments have never been this blatant and unrefined. This is one phase in our political evolution that I wish would pass very quickly.

How did it come to this? When did this “by fire by force” approach to the presidency begin? I wish I knew. Some commentators may want to argue that it started with the annulment of the June 12, 1993 election. The South-west, where the winner Bashorun MKO Abiola came from, made the country ungovernable for nearly five years. The pro-democracy activists insisted that it was June 12 or nothing. Abiola eventually died in detention. And in a well-scripted presidential election in 1999, the two contestants were from the South-west: Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae. Head or tail, the Yoruba were guaranteed to win, apparently as a compensation for the Abiola tragedy. However, I never heard the activists say it was either a Yoruba was made president or Nigeria would burn.

Also, ahead of the 2003 and 2007 elections, I remember that the South-east promoted the campaign for an “Igbo president”. It was more of an argument that since the Hausa/Fulani and the Yoruba had occupied the position, it was only fair for the Igbo to have a go. The clamour dominated the media, but I never heard any Igbo say there would be bloodshed if an Igbo was not elected president. Even the Niger Delta agitations that blew up in 2006 were not directly about presidency. They were about resource control and equity. The militants did not ask for presidency. It was Obasanjo, in his own political calculations, that decided to nominate an Ijaw, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, as Vice-President, most probably to contain the militancy.

Maybe the “by fire by force” trend started in 2009 when President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua took terminally ill. It suddenly became clear that power was on its way back to the South. Evidently, Jonathan, who would automatically become president, was likely to run in 2011. I may be wrong, but it was before the 2011 elections that I started hearing these “by fire by force” threats being openly made by ethnic warriors. There was the Adamu Ciroma-led Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) threatening to make the country “ungovernable” if Jonathan did not abide by the power rotation agreement in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). There was the response from Ijaw leader, Chief EK Clark, and the militants who said the South-south must produce the president, else there would be hellfire. We all know what happened after the elections.

And as we approach 2015, we are hearing of wars and rumours of wars yet again. Junaid said recently that there would be bloodshed if Jonathan even ventured to run for a second term. He should not even try it! Dokubo has now said if Jonathan is not re-elected, there would be war. Oil will not flow again! Of course, Junaid represents the thinking in some quarters – that Jonathan has usurped power and denied the North its slot. The best way to stop him is to intimidate him out of the race and threaten his supporters. On the other hand, Dokubo represents the thinking that Jonathan is being treated with “contempt” because he is a minority. They believe they have the duty to defend him with whatever they have.

To the Junaids, my advice is if you don’t want Jonathan, vote against him. No Northerner should be intimidated about whom they choose to support. A Northern governor said recently that he had the list of 400 Northern leaders who are working against “Northern interest”, a euphemism for “supporting Jonathan”. This is nonsense. People should support whoever they like. This blackmail must stop. There is no law that says a Northerner cannot prefer a Southerner as president and vice-versa. It is a matter of choice. It is called democracy. Barack Obama became the first black President of the US through the votes of the white majority, even though he ran against a white candidate. Four years later, he ran against another white candidate and got re-elected by a white-majority electorate. Free choice.

To the Dokubos, my word is: if you really believe in Jonathan, please go and campaign for him. Showcase what he has achieved and persuade us on why we should give him another four years. That is how democracy works.  Nobody should be blackmailed into supporting Jonathan simply because he is an Ijaw or a Southerner. Personally, I am sick and tired of this talk about “our oil”. How I wish this oil would dry up or begin to sell for $10 per barrel so that we can come back to our senses. Oil has destroyed every value in Nigeria. It continues to fuel corruption and conflict. The most advanced countries in the world do not depend on oil. This is certainly not the best way to win votes for Jonathan. I suspect that Dokubo is serving as a counter-force to threats from the North, but this is getting out of hand.
I will continue to say something: the emergence of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a catalyst that is capable of upgrading our democracy. If you don’t want the PDP, vote for APC. That is the spirit. We need to grow our democracy organically. We are making progress. We have fully established regular elections. We have developed a ballot system – even if still far from perfection. We are still battling with the rule of law and due process, but the judiciary has often risen to the occasion. We have evolved a vibrant electioneering process, even if it is still marred with pockets of discord and violence. The next major step is to have a strong opposition that can push the ruling party all the way and contest every ball on a level playing field.

Our democracy is a work in progress. That is why Nigerians who believe in the tenets of democracy must continue to condemn the Junaids and the Dokubos. Nigeria belongs to us all.  If Nigeria is not at peace, all of us will suffer the consequences. Nobody’s ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian – as Jonathan himself has said again and again. Let us give democracy a chance. Fellow Nigerians, we shall continue to hear of wars and rumours of wars but the end of Nigeria is not yet nigh. We shall overcome the preachers of hate, the campaigners of bloodshed and the angels of destruction. Fear not, for we shall outlive these war mongers.

• Follow me on twitter @simonkolawole

And Four Other Things…

NORTHERN ELDERS
Has President Jonathan started playing his cards ahead of the 2015 elections? The emergence of Northern Elders Council (NEC), led by Alhaji Tanko Yakassai, seems to be a response to Professor Ango Abdullahi’s Northern Elders Forum (NEF). While NEF is believed to be working for former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Yakassai’s NEC has already endorsed Jonathan and Vice-President Namadi Sambo for 2015. Atiku’s entrance into APC has changed calculations significantly. It now seems the battle for the ticket will be a direct one between him and Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. Where does this leave Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and Speaker Aminu Tambuwal?

RECURRENT TROUBLE
Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has come under criticism yet again over the high recurrent expenditure. But we’re dodging the real issues. The expenditure is not for Okonjo-Iweala’s office but for the salaries, allowances and overheads of the three arms of government. If we really want to address the problem, we must ask these questions: should we reduce the workforce or cut the pay? Should we merge some agencies? Should we reduce allowances, benefits and pensions? Will the lawmakers agree to forfeit part of their allowances so that the recurrent budget can be reduced? Let’s be more rigorous in our thinking.

GHANA’S HEADACHE
Ghana’s currency, the cedi, has continued to tumble against the dollar. Its central bank has now limited forex withdrawals to $10,000, backed by evidence of a foreign trip. The currencies of South Africa, Turkey and India have also tumbled, while Nigeria’s reserves have dwindled as we tried to maintain a stable exchange rate. What’s going on? The US Federal Reserve has scaled back its stimulus programme, making emerging markets less attractive to investors. We can now put into perspective the fact that Nigeria alone attracted over $7 billion FDI last year – the highest in Africa. Not bad at all.

DISTRESSED BUILDINGS
The epidemic of building collapse is the focus of a book launched by Professor Funso Falade of the University of Lagos on his 60th birthday last week. In his book, Strengthening of Distressed Buildings, the multiple award-winning professor of engineering raised hopes on the remedial measures that can save such buildings and prevent frequent tragic agonies in the land. The technical details are for civil engineers, contractors and the rest of the tribe, but my area of interest is that in this age of rampant building collapses, Professor Falade’s latest research work should be of enormous interest to the authorities.

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 Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

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