Suraj Oyewale: Why Jonathan will return in 2015 (Y! FrontPage)

by Suraj Oyewale

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The opposition are jokers! I was excited about the formation of APC, but as events unfolded, I have come to dismiss them as not serious. 

If the current public mood is anything to go by, one would get the impression that President Goodluck Jonathan’s days in Aso Rock are numbered. From Twitter to Facebook to Nairaland, to even the streets of Lagos and Abuja, there is widespread public anger against the performance of the man that came into power with a great deal of hope (at least for people that voted for him, who were in the majority).

Let me make a declaration. I am not a fan of President Jonathan. I campaigned rigorously against him in 2011, not because I hated his face, but because of his antecedents, notably poor performance as Governor of Bayelsa state. I also did not buy the humility and shoeless mantra. For me, it is hypocrisy to openly mouth God in campaigns and bribe delegates on the eve of PDP convention in Abuja, even out-doing a well-known rogue like Atiku Abubakar. The money that went into the campaign, reputed to be the most expensive in the history of Nigeria, also cannot be said to have come through party and private funding alone. Well, the knowledge later in the year that subsidy funds sky-rocketed in that year confirmed that suspicion. These were the things some of us saw that made us think Jonathan was not the right man for the job then. But when he won, I gave him benefit of the doubt. Perhaps I was wrong. I, for one, did not want him to fail. I wished him the best, while watching events unfold.

In fairness to him, he did well in a couple of things. I still think the appointment of Professor Attahiru Jega as INEC Chair is a positive for him, never mind the disappointment Jega has inflicted on us. I also think the power sector reform has made commendable progress, just as a couple of his ministers are doing well. The revival of railway transportation is also a plus for Jonathan.

These pockets of positives notwithstanding, if the President’s overall performance were to be presented in a primary school pupil’s report sheet, it would be written in red ink. Under Jonathan’s watch, corruption festered to a scale that had never been seen before in the history of this country. Almost every week, there are cases of one corruption scandal or the other under his watch. The anti-graft agencies set up by former administrations have practically been grounded. Add the official pardon of his former boss, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, a money-laundering rogue that escaped justice in foreign land, to that. His body language does not show any commitment to solving this problem. In any case, when asked why he did not toe the line of his former boss in Aso Rock by declaring his assets, even if not constitutionally mandated to do so, the President responded that he didn’t give a damn. So much for leading by example.

The tendency of President Jonathan to play politics with every matter of national importance is another low-point for his administration. President Jonathan is ready to sacrifice competence and performance on the altar of politics, as we saw in the dropping of a performing sports minister, Bolaji Abdullahi, just because the minister was nominated by Bukola Saraki, before his fall-out with the President. His engineering the sacking of Timpre Silva from Bayelsa state government house, not on the basis of performance, but due to ego clash, is another case in point.

I accept that fighting terrorism is not as simple as many Nigerians analyse on the Social Media. Yet, I don’t think Jonathan is doing enough. The absence of a consistent, coordinated strategy to fight this insurgence is appalling. I think an Obasanjo or even a Yar’adua would have done better. I also concede that some people are profiting from the whole security mess for political capital, but rather than blame every other person for this, he should realize the buck stops on the President’s table.

Now, with this poor scorecard, does Jonathan deserve a second term? No, to me. Will he win the next presidential election? He will. I will explain.

First, the rigging machinery is still intact. A lot of Nigerians will swear that Jonathan did not win the 2011 election, that it was rigged. Well, I agree his lieutenants collaborated with INEC officials to rig elections as evident in the unprecedented “turnout rate” witnessed in the South-South and South-East, but even if we factor out the inflated numbers, he would still have won. So I don’t buy the argument that he did not win 2011 elections. With a financial war chest that can make a saint think twice, PDP’s rigging machinery is still running. It will be at work again in 2015.

Second, Mama Nkechi is not on twitter. Ahead of 2011 elections, we members of Nairaland, Africa’s largest online forum, organized a poll on presidential elections and Buhari-Bakare won by a wide margin. Even as a member of Team Buhari-Bakare on Nairaland, I wasn’t excited, because it would be naïve of me to use online poll as a gauge of what will happen in real elections. Well, real elections came and Jonathan won. A UK-based Nairaland member was so furious that the elections were rigged. I have no problem with that, but his argument was, with due respect, quite shallow: Because Buhari won in Nairaland elections, and Nairaland is a microcosm of Nigeria, therefore the Buhari won the general elections. I called my friend to the back and told him it doesn’t work that way.

I can see some people have again begun to use Twitter and Facebook as gauge of 2015 elections. The sad news is, a sizeable percentage of Nigeria’s active Twitterati are based abroad. The real people that vote en masse are Mama Nkechi the food seller, Jamiu the driver, Samuel the computer repairer, and Adagbo the farmer. You wont find those on Twitter.

Third, ethnic and religious sentiments are even more pronounced today than 2011. Ethnicty and religion played a very important part in 2011 elections. All camps used it, to be fair to Jonathan. I can’t beat my chest and say that all those Buhari crowd voted for him based solely on his ability or past records. Jonathan also realized this as God probably appeared more than any other word in his campaigns.  Many Nigerians bought the dummy. The rest is history.

Although some people have come to realize people hide under religion and ethnicity to deceive them, the truth, as anyone close to the common folks on the streets would realize, is, the religious and ethnic sentiments are still pervasive. The other day at the car wash, I was chatting with a semi-literate man from the Niger Delta and all he had to say was Jonathan was being victimized by the Northerners because he was a Christian and from a minority tribe. This feeling is still pervasive.

Fourth, opposition are jokers! I was excited about the formation of APC, but as events unfolded, I have come to dismiss them as not serious. 2015 elections are less than a year away and all they still do is issue statements to counter every action of the ruling party or President. Other than the public lecture that was organized to unveil their manifestoes few months back, I have not seen APC make much efforts to win the populace. Yes, it is illegal to start campaign now, but effective politicians know how to play around the rules, without breaking it. Anytime I tune to Channels TV or other stations and see some jingles highlighting what Jonathan has achieved –  some real, some embellished and many outright lies – I wonder who APC strategists are. Jonathan has been going around the country subtly campaigning, and APC leaders are still sitting down, or sweeping his campaign venues. What a bunch of jokers!

So with all these, I can be pardoned for not being optimistic of any miracle happening in 2015, despite the widespread anti-Jonathan, anti-PDP tide in the land. Jonathan’s second term is all but guaranteed. And this is one thing I will be happy to be wrong on.

 

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Suraj Oyewale is a chartered accountant, blogger and public analyst. He is the Founder of JarusHub Career & Management Portal. [email protected] and he tweets from @mcjarus

 

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

 

Comments (2)

  1. This is not time for politics, We have to put our country in other before thinking of elections or if Jonathan will come back or not. The government should do the needful to end this Boko haram activities in the north east and help bring back our innocent school girls and not talk of 2015 as if they know what will happen the next minute talk more of 2015.

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