Suraj Oyewale: How to win Boko Haram in one year (Y! FrontPage)

by Suraj Oyewale

This week, for the first time since I was handed this column about four months ago, I will be conceding the space to someone else. My childhood friend, Dr. Michael Oluwafemi Taiwo, recently did a piece for my career and management portal, JarusHub, titled “How to End Boko Haram in Six Months or Less”. I looked at his proposed strategy for putting an end to this BH tragedy that has threatened the continued existence of this country and I found it plausible. I consider it worth sharing with the larger Nigerian readership. The essay is reproduced below:

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HOW TO END BOKO HARAM IN SIX MONTHS OR LESS

Michael Taiwo*, PhD

Boko Haram (BH) is Nigeria’s plague. Like a virus, it destroys its host while spreading death and disaster. BH used to be just another symptom of a diseased leadership but now, it has morphed into a much worse monster: it has become the symbol of a failing nation. It has wasted thousands, and the end appears nowhere in sight. The embarrassing inability of the President to quench this uncontrollable fire reveals, more than anything else, how clueless he is and how unfortunate the country has been to be cursed with such a figure. The first responsibility of the government is the security of the people. Failure to contain and wipe out BH is the best evidence that Aso Rock is vacant. On the basis of his performance on BH alone, there is enough ground for impeaching the President.

I have digressed. This article is neither about  the President nor his administration; there is plenty of time for that later as the election year approaches. This article is about how I would deal with the BH scourge were I given the task. I ask you to follow me on my high-level plan and judge if it is doable. Since I am not given this assignment, I hope those that are read my words and use it to put a quick end to this prolonged horror show.

There are three things I would do simultaneously:

1.      Live among the Locals

The first thing the army is doing wrong in the North East is that they have barracks where all of them stay. It is very tempting to want to retreat behind high walls the enemy cannot breach and there’s something to be said for staying in a relatively peaceful headquarters where plans can be hatched. But the reason they are there is not to keep themselves safe but to keep other people safe  and you cannot do that in seclusion.

More importantly, by living with the locals, you become familiar with them and they are more likely to tell you what you really want to know: who the terrorists are, where they stay and who is funding them. Information is the currency of war and you obtain it by grafting yourself in the society’s fabric.

Also, by living among the locals, you send a message of “we are in this together” – a shared destiny. This makes it easier for you to win their minds. It must be noted that what BH is fighting for really is to win the hearts and minds of the people, to convince people of their way as the best way.  By staying with the local population, you have the chance to re-orient them away from the destructive teachings and propagandas of the terrorists.

Moreover, it is a maxim of war that you should give the enemy no target to attack. By interweaving the army with the indigenes and spreading them out (but still well connected by modern communications technologies), the enemy will not know where to strike. Everywhere will look to him like barracks and the people will start gaining more confidence in you than in the terrorists. If you can pull this off, if you can live with the people and let them see you as their friend and rescuer, the rest is easy. Look, the people of that area know who the perpetrators are. They are just too scared to talk.

Make no mistake: you will have to crush the enemy. Destroy his morale, his will to fight. Erase him everywhere you find him and make a public show of it. Use force or the threat of it to add to the enemy’s casualties. Strike the shepherd and the sheep will scatter.

2.      Win the Public Relations war

BH is winning and we know it because every day we see the number of people they kill or maim; we count the buildings they destroy and we realize how much of a match they are for the armed forces. They act and then publicize it. They know they have to win the Public Relations (PR) war so that the funds can keep coming in. No one wants to finance a losing campaign. Your job will be to get the message out that the terrorist network is dying and on its way out. I hear the army keeps journalists out of some war zones. What a stupid move! Allow journalists in! Perception is reality. Your version of what is going on must drive public discussion and debate on this issue. Have a public relations expert – a master spinner – work with newsmen from various outlets to craft a continual stream of victory tales; of the valour and brilliance of your men; of how the enemy is dwindling by the day. Let them interact with the locals and interview them. Let them get the word out on people’s hopes of victory. Tell your own story. Don’t let the scumbags do it for you. By doing this, you galvanize support from the outside world and channel hate towards the arsonists and trouble makers. Let people know you are winning and that you are not leaving until the last of the insurgents is rooted out and dealt with.

A well-orchestrated PR war is a great way to spread misinformation. In a bid to refute your claims, the enemy shows his face and you nab him.  Use informants and double spies. Publish the names you have and televise how the network runs. People must see you are winning to believe you. If the terrorists can get to them, it dents your credibility. Even when the terrorists score a point, make sure the word doesn’t get out. Control the information channels and you choke the terrorists’ hopes of survival. Remember: each byte of information you have is worth more than ten armoured tanks.

3.      Crush the terrorists

Make no mistake: you will have to crush the enemy. Destroy his morale, his will to fight. Erase him everywhere you find him and make a public show of it. Use force or the threat of it to add to the enemy’s casualties. Strike the shepherd and the sheep will scatter. Your aim here is simple: use each captured terrorist to get to his boss and then his boss’s boss until you get to the source. You capture one to capture many.  This is where you cash in all the information you have about the enemy.

Always keep in mind that you are not after the minions per se, it is the mastermind of this network you want. And any method that will get you there fastest with the least bloodshed has the blessings of the gods of strategy.

People must see you are winning to believe you. If the terrorists can get to them, it dents your credibility.

Lest anyone think these are principles born of musings from a library, I will apply these steps to three case studies in history and look at how they have been used, misused or abused.

Case Study 1: The Irish Republic Army vs. British Government

Case Study 2: The FRN vs. French Government

Case Study 3: United States in Iraq

Many Nigerians think Boko Haram is an unsolvable problem because they have loomed larger than life. BH is not motivated by money like the oil thieves and militants in the South; their grievance is ideological in nature – which makes them belong to the class of insurgents and terrorists that we will look at below.

Other countries have been here before. And by studying their successes and failures, we can craft our own strategy.

Case Study 1: The Irish Republican Army vs. British Government

Period: Early 20th century

Location: Europe

The Anglo-Irish War of 1919-21 was the first modern guerilla war. This was an Irish fight for independence from the British. Michael Collins led the Irish Republican Army (IRA) and was a master strategist. He conducted a highly effective insurgent struggle against the British government. He was eventually able to force the British to a negotiation table. They still didn’t get their independence but they fared much better after the deal.

I said earlier that “Live Among the Locals” is one of the ways to quickly bring about the demise of BH. Well, the British soldiers did live in Ireland but they lived in exclusive quarters just like our own soldiers too in the North East. Despite being in Ireland for over 800 years, the British soldiers never understood the country they were in, its people or their culture. This led them to consistently underestimate the enemy and what should have been a quick decisive victory for them turned into a much dragged out battle that only ended with a compromise.

Case Study 2:  Front de Libération Nationale  vs. French Government

Period: Middle of the 20th century

Location: Africa

This is another war of independence. It was fought in Algeria against the French. The FLN was formed from smaller groups to wrest the control of Algiers from France. Their tactics increasingly grew dark and they killed and bombed at will. Anyone suspected of helping the French became a target. The French soldiers were able to curb this disorder by capturing a few of the terrorists based on intelligence from the locals. Once a terrorist is nabbed, they quickly squeezed information out of him to capture the others…and eventually were able to get to the source. Crush the terrorist and publicize your victory. The Nigerian army has to start really partnering with the locals to get the right actionable intelligence.

Case Study 3: United States in Iraq

Period: Early 21st century

Location: Asia

After 10 bloody years, the United States Army is coming back home from Iraq with its tail between its legs. Like the British Army a hundred years ago, a superpower has been outwitted by a smaller band of determined warriors using unconventional tactics. It is instructive to note that the US suffered from the same problem as the British a century earlier: they failed to understand the country they were in. The people of Iraq don’t see them as liberators, they see them as invaders. And you cannot win an irregular war without the full cooperation of the indigenes.

Conclusion

I have looked at three cases that took place at different periods in different continents to show the universality and the timelessness of the strategy I propose to erase Boko Haram. I hope some people currently tasked with this onerous assignment will take note and apply.

 *Michael holds a first class degree in Chemical Engineering from the Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria, and PhD in same discipline from the University of Arkansas, United States. He lives in the United States.

I align with Michael’s proposed strategy, although I’m not sure about his timeline for result – six months. The part I found most appealing is the media war. Let’s be sincere with ourselves, the media are not helping matter in this war against the evil men. The mindset of majority of Nigerians, especially those with social voices, is not helping matter either. You see, many Nigerians will believe a news story that says BH kills 50 soldiers but will read with scepticism any piece of news that says the military kills 50 BH fighters. Propaganda is part of warfare. The Nigerian media need to do their part too. The reportage of the crisis so far is tilted towards a BH victory, and this is raising the audacity of these terrorists. I’m not saying the media should not report what is the truth, irrespective of whom it favours, but I’m sure they know how to couch headlines to downplay the downsides of the insurgency. It is time we all stood united against these agents of death and destruction.

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Suraj Oyewale is a chartered accountant, blogger and public analyst, is the Founder of JarusHub Career & Management Portal. He tweets from @mcjarus

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

 

 

 

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