by Saatah Nubari

The APC just zoned their presidential ticket to the North. Does this mean there are no competent people from other parts of the country? Or is this just a continuation of the Yoruba/Hausa alliance? Why can’t Fashola be allowed to run? I’ll definitely vote for him if he decides to run. Why can’t Rochas be allowed to run?

If you take a close look at the criticism of the present administration by the opposition and most Nigerians, you’ll think it’s because of under-performance. Now let’s try something different; let’s not just take a look at this administration, let’s also take a look at previous administrations. Now compare the criticism of previous administration to the current criticism of this administration, and the word ETHNICITY will come up.

I know most people reading this are already raining insults on me, but let’s save it for the end. In Nigeria, politics or rather leadership has never been about what you can do or what you have done. It has always been about where you are from and what religion you profess.

THE ETHNIC ALLIANCE

In 1999, the Hausa’s literally handed power to the Yoruba’s, this was a continuation of the Yoruba/Hausa alliance. The agreement was simple; the Yoruba’s produce the president to compensate for June 12 while the Hausa’s were to produce the vice president. This agreement was meant to continue like this with the presidency being rotated between the Hausa’s and the Yoruba’s. Forget about the “North and South” name given to the zoning policy, it was meant to deceive the Igbos into believing they were a part of the plan. I hope you noticed that in this zoning, the remaining 247 ethnic groups were not part of the plan, they were not “important”.

After Obasanjo was sworn in, things changed. Obasanjo had other plans that would not be favourable to the North but he didn’t make it manifest till after the 2003 general elections. This reason is arguably the main reason why he had a fall out with Atiku Abubakar and the Northern elites. Obasanjo harbored a third term agenda and the North wouldn’t support it. Note that the lack of support from the North was not because they thought it was undemocratic, it was probably because they couldn’t wait for four more years to grab power again. During this period, it should be noted that the support Obasanjo received was mainly from the Niger Delta

In 2007, Atiku Abubakar left the PDP knowing that he will not get the presidential ticket. Obasanjo wanted to be god; he wanted to remain relevant despite his lost third term bid so he handpicked the late Yar’adua and Goodluck Jonathan, two quiet fellows he could dictate things to. He tried to kill two birds with one stone; he wanted to keep the alliance with the North and also wanted to dictate things behind the curtains.

As we have come to notice in Nigeria, things don’t always go according to plan. Umaru Musa Yar’adua fell ill and chaos ensued. The Northerners knew Jonathan; an indigene of one of the 247 ethnic groups that were not part of the plan might be president. It should also be noted that during that period, there was a known refusal to hand over power to Jonathan. Well to cut a long story short, Yar’adua died and Jonathan was against the wish of the North sworn into office.

Now let’s continue with the Yoruba/Hausa alliance. In the desperate move to stop Jonathan from getting elected in 2011 the alliance became even more brazen. The CPC fielded Muhammadu  Buhari as presidential candidate and Tunde Bakare as his vice. Buhari is from Hausa while Bakare is from Yoruba. The ACN fielded Nuhu Ribadu as presidential candidate and Fola Adeola as vice. Ribadu is from Hausa while Adeola is from Yoruba.

Goodluck Jonathan won that election, and two years after, the criticism he has received from the Hausa’s and Yoruba’s should not be linked to the under achievement of his administration, rather let’s clean our eyes and see the ethnic clout behind it

The reason the Igbos will continue to show support for Jonathan is this; they feel shortchanged and as such will love to vie for the office of the President in 2019 if Jonathan wins in 2015. They know they won’t get the backing of the Hausa’s and Yoruba’s hence their support for Jonathan, so in 2019 they will also have the support of the other ethnic minorities who also feel shortchanged.

By now most people would have labeled me a GEJ supporter. Let me clarify things for people who still don’t get what I’m trying to say. The present criticism of this administration is purely that of ETHNICITY, that’s when it comes to our politicians. Although Nigerians are rightfully aggrieved of the slowness of this administration, our politicians have used this genuine clamor for change to cover their ethnic politics. Let me give you an example. The APC just zoned their presidential ticket to the North. Does this mean there are no competent people from other parts of the country? Or is this just a continuation of the Yoruba/Hausa alliance? Why can’t Fashola be allowed to run? I’ll definitely vote for him if he decides to run. Why can’t Rochas be allowed to run? These are the questions we should ask ourselves and not play into their hands. Let me tell you how it’s going to be, Buhari is going to emerge as presidential candidate of the APC and maybe Fashola will be his vice.

Now you understand that who becomes president is not based on how much you have performed or how much you can perform. It’s about where you’re from and Goodluck Jonathan just doesn’t come from the right place. So if by 2015 GEJ brings God himself to Nigeria, the ethnic alliance will still be against him. If the APC is serious about Nigerians, they should let Fashola run. If the PDP is serious about Nigerians, nobody should be given automatic ticket. Let’s throw ethnicity away, let’s throw Federal character away. Let elections be all about what you can do and not where you are from.

To politicians who have clamoured for violent revolution, let the Federal Government get 160 million guns and tonnes of ammunition, share it to every single soul starting with Buhari, Tinubu, Atiku and every other politician that have asked for a revolution; lock our borders, close down our airports, nobody should be allowed to leave be you rich or poor, and let the revolution start. The youths won’t be the only ones to fight, our politicians must fight too.

Well I’ve done my best to explain the way I think politics is run in Nigeria. To those of you who have held your insults till now, feel free to give it to me generously, God bless you.

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Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.