by Demola Rewaju

Ambode has no political structures loyal to him and he will rely on Bola Tinubu to deliver for him. The problem? Tinubu’s eyes are on the federal elections.

Let me start this piece by confessing my bias – I believe Lagos needs to cut off political ties with Tinubu’s political dynasty. Also let me say that although Obanikoro is yet to become the PDP Gubernatorial candidate in Lagos state, I firmly believe only he of all candidates can challenge and win Lagos for PDP. Having said that, here are thirteen reasons why I think Obanikoro will defeat Ambode on February 28 next year.

– Party Unity: While it can be argued that both APC and PDP will have divisions resulting from their primaries, the PDP has fewer factions and Obanikoro heads a strong faction of loyalists who can serve as polling agents to prevent rigging when it boils down to it.

– Popularity: Obanikoro is more popular than Ambode who was relatively unknown until the Tinubu dynasty threw him up just this year. When elections go to the wire, a recognized candidate has the edge.

– Charisma: Obanikoro is more charismatic than Ambode – if Fashola was able to hold his own at public events to sell him to the electorate, Ambode is unable to do same. His speeches are drab at best and his charisma is non-existent (this is why he is more in the newspapers than on television). With over two decades of politicking and campaigns in his kitty, Koro is the better man to work the crowd.

– Old Battles, New Battles: The problem with fielding an unknown is that you do not know where his flaws will be brought up and amplified. With Obanikoro, all issues that can be raised have been raised at some point in the past. The only thing raised on Ambode so far is that he is an indigene of Ondo State according to records and there are allegation of other controversies that will be made public as usual in politics.

– Fashola Sidelined – Fashola’s famed record as governor should be a selling point for any APC candidate but having been caged at the primaries and without high stakes in the 2015 elections, the Lagos governor may not be as hard-hitting as Ambode might hope and this plays to Obanikoro’s favour. In the days to come, Fashola’s lack of a voice in the choice of his own successor will be amplified.

– The Tinubu Factor: Tinubu’s political structure in Lagos is not as strong as it was in 2007 or even 2011 despite the hype – Associates like Muiz Banire have openly come out to castigate his predilection for imposition. Obanikoro with an understanding of the Tinubu machinery and having faced it before is better equipped this time.

– Ambode is no Fashola who although unknown in 2007 was well known to all the major players after spending five years as Tinubu’s Chief of Staff and major member of his intelligentsia. Fashola commanded grudging respect from his co-aspirants in the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) unlike Ambode whom many Tinubuists see as an outsider or usurper.

– An Improved Koro Brand – Obanikoro has identified his major problem in 2007 and he is working on it – codedly put: the Koro of 2007 is not the Koro of 2015 and every observer will hardly believe it is the same person by the time the man presents himself in public.

– Elitist Politics: The elitist tag on Fashola/APC will rub off on Ambode in places like Alimosho where the highest votes come from. The ‘local boy’ tag on Obanikoro may ironically work against the APC as leadership tends towards grassroots governance.

– Other Candidates: Party candidates move in formation i.e. House of Reps candidate campaigns for Gubernatorial and vice versa. This is easily achieved for Obanikoro who has rapport with potential candidates like Segun ‘Aeroland’ Adewale who is hugely popular in Alimosho. Other APC candidates may work with Ambode only grudgingly, not out of personal loyalty to him. This usually makes the difference as politics is usually played out at the local level.

– Goodluck Jonathan: Kano, Lagos and Rivers State have a combined voting strength of about 11 million voters and all three states are APC controlled. If President Jonathan loses all three, his chances of victory in the general elections are slimmer. With the importance of Lagos in his political scheming, President Jonathan will give all required support to Obanikoro and this will make a difference. As there will be no rumoured deals this time between he and Tinubu, everything (including ordering all PDP stalwarts to work together and enticing disgruntled APC stalwarts to join PDP) will be deployed.

– Structure: Ambode has no political structures loyal to him and he will rely on Bola Tinubu to deliver for him. The problem? Tinubu’s eyes are on the federal elections.

– Ambode has never contested a federal or state election in his entire life – Obanikoro’s first contest was in 1992; he has lost two elections but gained political experience in the process.

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