Opinion: Gov. Obi and the way out of the Anambra quagmire

by Ikenna Oguejiofor

peter-obi

So while we wait on the eventual outcome of the APC registration from INEC, the future journey and participation in November election in the state though desirable is even yet to start.

That there is going to be INEC-conducted Governorship election in Anambra State by November 16, 2013 is no longer news. What is particularly new unlike in the past is the assuming uncertain posturing of politicians in the state. With the exception of few new politicians entering the governorship race, creamed with decorated marked buses, campaign offices and posters almost everywhere in most cities and towns of the state.  And as you will expect, one of the reasons for this visibility can be partly attributed to the fact that these new entrants are required to ensure wider political reach of the Anambra people ahead of their party primaries. Other politicians and aspirants that have participated in the Governorship election once or twice in the past now adopt a more strategic approach posturing. Well, their current posturing must be seen as a reason gained in experience that in a very politically unique Anambra State, one requires more than mere visibility to win in an election.

Also important is the mood of the present administration of APGA led by Governor Peter Obi. The general feelings within the government circle does not relate towards any exciting exercise since the Court of Appeal’s judgement in Enugu that returned the National Leadership of APGA back to Chief Victor Umeh and the INEC recognition of the Umeh-led executive against Peter Obi favoured Chief Maxi Okwu. Though the APGA faction led by Maxi Okwu has expressed their willingness to appeal against the judgement, still the Governor of Anambra State remains worried about the next move and a combination of factors point to the growing political no-show.

First as a serving Governor, Peter Obi with disputable but remarkable achievements in the state will be happy to have an easy ride on the choice of the party candidate of his likely successor. But that does not seem to be happening now and with the return of the party machineries back to his erstwhile buddy, the Governor is indeed worried. There are also indications that the Governor and his kitchen cabinet are contemplating mass exist to a new political party. While this will remain in the realm of speculation, one thing is important in assessing what will become of the final decision of Governor Peter Obi. The Governor recognises the financial implication of joining a new political party close to the election even with the Local Government election slated for October 5, particularly in areas of building grassroots support and strong party structure. Again, what will become of the only likely surviving pan-Igbo political party that APGA have always appear to anchor? What are the legacies of the late founder of APGA, Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu, that Peter Obi rode to secure power and even got him travelling around the state for campaigns in his very sick days? Surely, the opposition are waiting for his action as much as the people of Anambra State. So before the Governor lays a moral, political and sustenance struggle. But whatever his decision, his detractors are poised to use his actions or inactions to father their net. So, do not get it twisted when you hear that Governor Peter Obi did not celebrate his birthday on the 17th of July, for surely there are many worries.

However, one would have expected that the development and no rosy relationship within the ruling party and the Governor’s camp will come with greater opportunities for the opposition parties in the state. Alas! There is no halleluiah as the opposition political parties have even a greater fight as the Governor. The PDP in Anambra State has not for over a decade now been without internal conflicts. There are cases in the past that state party structure has up to three state chairmen claiming rightful and authentic representation of the PDP in the state. It is general knowledge that the PDP’s inability to harmonize their internal interest has been responsible for the party poor show at various elections in the state. Even as the build-up to the November 16, 2013 Governorship draws closer, the prospect that the PDP will succeed in bringing together her legions of interest and aspirants to accept a common ground and support one candidate is dim. For whatever reason, the PDP is home to political front liners in the state and over a period of time there has been fractured relationship among stakeholders and as one will expect, the fight now within the party is who will become the last EMPEROR and surely whoever becomes the party choice is regarded as such. So when eventually, the PDP comes up with their choice for the election, as always there is going to be explosion of massive decamp to other political parties by those characters not favoured in the process. And, there is also absolutely no way that PDP at this time will succeed in harmonizing divergent interests  in its house in Anambra State to accept a common front without the hammer of stringent sanctions.  And how can the National leadership of the party achieve this feast without being accused of bias or disposition to a particular group? We shall see in the coming days, but imagine such a decision with Senator Emmanuel (Andy) Ubah, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, Nicholas Ukachukwu, and Com. Joseph Nwoye or someone to represent the PDP and how the acceptability level will be received? So for the PDP in Anambra State, the journey continues!

The combinations of other opposition political parties in the state – notably the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) joined by others with the exception of Labour Party and tiny shots of others are fast metamorphosing into new political party hopeful All Progressive Congress (APC). In Anambra State, this movement is being marshalled by Dr. Chris Ngige, Senator Annie Okonkwo and couple of others who are themselves interested in contesting the November Governorship election. When eventually the APC is registered and the structure takes shape in the state, there will be little time left to plan, organise and smoothens things before the election. So the APC will be time constrained to get its house in order and ahead of the 2015 Presidential Election, which is the party’s main target. The national leadership of the would-be party will be faced to protect its house against internal party democracy which it has rightly accused the ruling PDP of lacking. With the composition of the elements, political heavyweights and individuals in Anambra State in APC, achievement of a common ground to present one candidate within the time frame for the Governorship election without being accused of imposition and subversion of the democratic process is slim and for a fresh party, the best bet would be to fill no candidate or allow for the various structures and political parties that make up APC in the state to decompose and present their respective candidate. Again, there are other choices always available to a political party in Nigeria. So while we wait on the eventual outcome of the APC registration from INEC, the future journey and participations in November election in the state though desirable is even yet to start.

The confusions and the way out

Friedrich Nietzsche, the German Philosopher had declared “you must have chaos within you to give birth to a dancing start”. In Anambra State, though there are no traces of visible chaos in the system and people going about their normal duties, still the political uncertainty and the lack of clearly thought out plan by political parties and politicians other than winning at the election show that the people of Anambra State are more likely to be cowed or have their rightful choice thwarted in the process if things are not checked. There is a greater possibility that the forthcoming election will be massively rushed despite the INEC clear timetable. This is because by the time political parties end up with choosing or electing their individual flag bearer and the mass of decamping that will follow; the Anambra electorates will be faced with list of possible candidates to make choice of without fully having a glance of what these candidates profile, programmes and campaigns promises are. At this time, election in the state and as much in other parts of the country will return to cash cow where those who have the financial resources are able to con the masses and buy their votes.

But watch it, time has changed. Moreso things are no longer the same, and even in this politically staged uncertainty, Anambra people possess the avid prospect to elect the best choice out of the pool if only the parties involved will do the right thing. Helping demystify the chaos will start from INEC. The electoral body must be truly impartial in the conduct and administration of the entire process and conduct of the election. While INEC activities in the last Governorship election in Anambra State remained at average level, the body must see the conduct of this election as a snapshot of what Nigerians at large will expect in her preparation towards the Nigeria 2015 General Elections.

 

And for Governor Peter Obi

The opportunity has beckoned to either consolidate on your achievements or destroy them by insisting on having the prerogative of choosing your successor and not reconciling with your party. The power of incumbency which you enjoy is once again being tested, how you use that is up to you and be mindful that soon you will be without them and the people of Anambra State are watching you.

 

And you politician Governorship candidate(s)

Define your goals, articulate and relate your programmes to the people in such a way that governance and government is not seen as a rocket science. Some of you want to build bridges, airports and make Anambra an overnight heaven…well, congratulations in advance but can you truly achieve on those? Again a lot of you are waiting on the decisions of your various parties to begin let the general people of Anambra State see your good programmes. Sorry to you because only a handful of you will eventually get that party ticket and by the time you conclude arrangement for another political party, most of your supporters and good people of Anambra State are already taken and the remaining will be there as long as your big money can carry. At the end, your candidate will become a regular noise making siren.

For PDP et al

To survive in this Governorship election, your discreet choice of a credible candidate is the only way to be victorious. As you may have noticed that the failure to do this in the past have caused you failures at the pool, at the end some of the politicians will decamp to another party to stand in for election and later re-emerge as your member. This has been the cycle, for the reason you do not have internal discipline and politicians in the state know that in you lies a Father Christmas bouquet. If the politicians you house are viable candidates, why have they not won elections even from another party? So get it right now or forget it.

Guess who will wins, Anambra people wins…

At the end, the people of Anambra State will have a Governor. But for now and the weeks to follow, let the worries continue.

 

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Ikenna Oguejiofor wrote in from Oulu Business School, Finland.

 

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

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