GDP on the up as Nigeria posts bullish Q2 figures

by Tunji Andrews

Nigeria posted a 6.54% GDP growth for the second quarter of 2014, a 0.33 percentage point increase from the first quarter according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This increase was largely due to stronger showings by the industries sub category which almost doubled its first quarter postings, coming in at 8.97%, up from 4.84 in the first quarter. This increase also came despite the slowdowns of the Agriculture and services sub categories which posted 6.54% and 3.68% respectively, down from the first quarter showings of 5.53% and 7.2% respectively.

The average daily crude oil production in the Second Quarter of 2014 was recorded at 2.21 mbpd as against 2.11 mbpd in the corresponding quarter of 2013, an increase of 0.10 mbpd or 4.7%. In addition, the US dollar price of crude increased significantly from an average price of 104.31 in Q2 2013 to 112.25 in Q2 2014, an increase of 7.6 percent. Consequently, oil GDP was valued at N2,633,328.61 million in nominal terms in the Second Quarter of 2014, compared to N2,633,328.61 million recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013.

Real growth in the oil sector was recorded at 5.40% in Q2 2014 (-5.22% quarter-on-quarter), indicating better performance compared to -16.42% growth recorded in Q2 of 2013. The Non-oil real sector of the economy grew by 6.71% in the Second Quarter of 2014 (5.4% QoQ), a decline of 2.17 percentage points from the 8.88% growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013. Relative to Q1 of 2013, non-oil growth was also lower by 1.49 percentage points when growth was recorded at 8.21%.

Sector contribution

The Services sector accounted for the largest share of real GDP in the Second Quarter of 2014, amounting to N8,549,170.96 million or 53.15%. Industry ranked second with a contribution of N4,175,000.87 million or 25.96%, whilst Agriculture constituted the smallest sector in the Second Quarter, representing N3,360,450.48 million or 20.89% of GDP.

In the second quarter of 2014, Nigeria’s nominal Gross Domestic Product, GDP (at basic prices) was estimated at N21,734,829.86 million, and N16,084,622.31 million in real terms. In the corresponding quarter of 2013, nominal GDP was estimated N19,931,015.71 and N15,096,763.55 million in real terms. As a result, the growth rate of real GDP was recorded at 6.54% in Q2 2014 (4.18% quarter-on-quarter), higher than 5.40% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013, and also higher than the 6.21% recorded in the First Quarter of 2014.

Trade

Trade ranked second in terms of share to real GDP in Q2 2014. It contributed N2,697,757.92 million or 16.77 % of real GDP in the Second quarter of 2014, marginally lower than the 16.99% contribution to GDP recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013. While growth was positive in the second quarter of 2014 5.15% (0.72% QoQ), it was marginally lower than the record for the corresponding quarter of 2013. This was as a result of slower growth in agricultural output, a key input for traders.

Telecommunications

In real terms, telecommunications contributed N1,487,620.52 million or 9.25% to total GDP in the second quarter of 2014, roughly unchanged from the contribution made to the total GDP in Q2 2013. In Q2 2014, economic activity picked up however, indicating a growth rate of 6.15% (16.57% QoQ), 0.85 percentage points higher from Q2 2013, and 1.67% higher from the first quarter of this year. This was as a result of increased consumer demand for telecommunication products.

Crop production

Crop production was the largest contributor to real GDP in Q2 of 2014, with N2,983,925.41 million or 18.55% of total real GDP, marginally lower by 0.54 percentage points from Q2 2013 . Growth in the second quarter was recorded at 3.56% year-on-year (12.89% QoQ) . This was however lower by 1.86 percentage points from the first quarter of 2014. While growth was not at strong as was experienced in Q1 2014, the sector nevertheless remains buoyed by government interventions in the sector by the way of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda.

Real estate

Real estate represented 7.87 of real GDP in the Second quarter of 2014, marginally lower from its share to GDP in the corresponding quarter of last year.

While year-on-year growth continues to be lower relative to the previous year, growth in the second quarter was higher compared to the first, increasing by 1.78 percentage points to 4.95% (18.90% QoQ) as economic activity in the quarter picked up relative to the first quarter of the year.

Comments (10)

  1. is it only me, bit it appears i dont understand the gdp caculation

  2. can anyone sum up the whole story for me

  3. na only figures we dey see. no money for pocket?

  4. tooo long. i cant read.

  5. how will this put food on my table now?

  6. we that didnt do economics, how do we sum this all thing now.

  7. @nifemi, that is because, you are an olodo.

  8. wetin consine me with all this big big figures.

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