by Michael Orodare

All eyes will be on Nigeria in 2014, the year will decide whether the 2015 general elections will hold, or Nigeria will break up as it has been predicted by the United States of America, that Nigeria will break before 2015, the thin line between the fulfilment or otherwise of the prediction is just next year. The world is watching and waiting for the manifestation or vagueness of the prediction that will break this 100-years old union.

2013 was a year of political tumultuary and fierce political vituperations and battles in Nigeria.

To usher us into the New Year is the APC national convention to elect its substantive party executives, which baring all last minute changes, will hold in January 2014. But recent developments have indicated that the national convention might not hold next month anyway since the party is yet to commence membership registration and conduct local government and state congresses which were formerly slated to hold this month (December).

Nigerians, especially the politically inclined are expecting the outcome of the party’s national convention and see whether it is going to be a replication of what played out at the August 31st, 2013 PDP mini-convention. This is why it is one of the major political events to watch out for in 2014 and like some observers and those in the ruling party, PDP have been predicting, the convention might just be the beginning of the fiasco of the party. But trust the APC they are good crisis and media managers than the ruling PDP, where all their dirty linens are washed in the public. So even when there is an internal crisis in the APC, it may never be a subject of discussion in the public.

Whether Bisi Akande the present interim National Chairman of the party will be retained or whether the pendulum will swing to the North, is still a mystery waiting to be unravelled at the convention.

All eyes will be on Nigeria in 2014, the year will decide whether the 2015 general elections will hold, or Nigeria will break up as it has been predicted by the United States of America, that Nigeria will break before 2015, the thin line between the fulfillment or otherwise of the prediction is just next year. The world is watching and waiting for the manifestation or vagueness of the prediction that will break this 100-years old union.

On the other hand, 2014 will also decide whether there is going to be an election in 2015 or not if the Senate finally succeeds in its proposed 6-years single term agenda for President and State Governors.

Surely, it is going to be a year of lots of political intrigues, mass defections, a year of party conventions that will make or mar the fortune of political parties at the 2015 polls. It’s going to be the year of declaration of ambitions, whether the much speculated second term plan of President Goodluck Jonathan is true or false, with all the mystery and hullabaloo this has generated expected to be laid to rest when his intention is finally made known in 2014. Will General Muhammad Buhari be the presidential candidate of the APC? Though it’s still a mystery, all these will surely be unravelled in the year 2014.

By the end of 2014, the primary elections of virtually all political parties must have been completed which will also in no small measure tear down or build the structures of some political parties.

By this time next year, we would have known who and who is flying the flag of the respective political parties fielding candidates in the 2015 Presidential elections. Whether G-7 or G-5, nPDP, or PDM, they will all know their stand by this time next year.

Will the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has boasted of ruling Nigeria for the next 50-years, ever be as strong, united and a force to reckon with, like it was in the past? The answer to that will come as events unfold in 2014.

Will the ‘Third Force’ political parties also spring up surprises in 2014, by growing in leaps and bounds? This is also one of the questions which political events in 2014 will provide answer to.

No doubt, 2014 is going to be the decisive year for what to expect in 2015.

Just as I’m signing out for the year, I’m also wishing you all a prosperous New Year ahead. We’ll meet in the New Year to enjoy the political events 2014 has in stock for us. For those directly or indirectly involved in the political ‘action film’ of 2014, may you break a leg in the New Year.

——————————————–

Michael Olanrewaju Orodare has worked in the Office of the Chief Press Secretary to the Ondo State Governor as a Media Assistant. He has garnered experience writing in the The Nation Newspaper working with the paper’s Sunday Desk. He leans towards the Labour Party. He blogs at www.michaelorodare.blogspot.com and tweets from @MichaelOrodare

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.