Fact Check: Donald Trump is right this time; America’s national debt really has decreased

On Saturday, shortly after FOX  news reported a dip in America’s national debt, Trump tweeted this:

He did not stop there. He tweeted thereafter, tweeted.

 

We’ve already said it here, that Trump is more likely to pay attention to something if you put it on FOX Television.

Trump is right, though. In his first month, the national debt has decreased, while in Obama’s first month, there was a significant increase in the national debt.

See charts below:

OBAMA

 

TRUMP

Date Debt Held by the Public Intragovernmental Holdings Total Public Debt Outstanding
01/20/2017 14,403,704,176,388.94 5,543,600,378,823.55 19,947,304,555,212.49
01/23/2017 14,403,351,740,088.47 5,546,326,626,909.53 19,949,678,366,998.00
01/24/2017 14,403,553,860,564.25 5,554,535,694,795.58 19,958,089,555,359.83
01/25/2017 14,403,832,990,025.55 5,546,770,252,641.98 19,950,603,242,667.53
01/26/2017 14,387,199,090,397.24 5,552,709,700,473.24 19,939,908,790,870.48
01/27/2017 14,387,267,502,732.51 5,551,752,332,096.38 19,939,019,834,828.89
01/30/2017 14,387,073,315,008.16 5,552,686,948,975.26 19,939,760,263,983.42
01/31/2017 14,376,138,803,534.81 5,561,122,510,968.48 19,937,261,314,503.29
02/01/2017 14,376,018,549,508.21 5,524,018,923,279.05 19,900,037,472,787.26
02/02/2017 14,366,132,157,960.80 5,536,695,305,608.30 19,902,827,463,569.10
02/03/2017 14,365,217,667,097.67 5,520,657,483,446.78 19,885,875,150,544.45
02/06/2017 14,365,258,270,382.27 5,525,071,944,834.25 19,890,330,215,216.52
02/07/2017 14,365,365,821,333.09 5,530,397,847,836.97 19,895,763,669,170.06
02/08/2017 14,366,065,663,550.10 5,518,540,557,906.09 19,884,606,221,456.19
02/09/2017 14,402,429,500,385.19 5,519,906,129,921.50 19,922,335,630,306.69
02/10/2017 14,402,525,665,272.86 5,518,539,623,788.82 19,921,065,289,061.68
02/13/2017 14,402,458,044,486.83 5,521,760,472,587.69 19,924,218,517,074.52
02/14/2017 14,404,012,711,812.97 5,528,666,521,903.19 19,932,679,233,716.16
02/15/2017 14,417,333,314,382.25 5,520,031,281,120.76 19,937,364,595,503.01
02/16/2017 14,403,392,566,439.40 5,523,188,600,438.96 19,926,581,166,878.36
02/17/2017 14,403,413,744,145.80 5,529,091,129,955.66 19,932,504,874,101.46
02/21/2017 14,403,610,733,597.23 5,531,705,453,238.55 19,935,316,186,835.78
02/22/2017 14,404,723,995,058.93 5,531,156,856,922.13 19,935,880,851,981.06
02/23/2017 14,384,082,361,381.86 5,529,818,758,806.29 19,913,901,120,188.15

 

Going by the US Department of Treasury’s figures, as at close of business on Thursday, the national debt was $33,403,435,024.34 lesser than when Trump took office on January 20th.

Great news, right?

Even the president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget, Maya MacGuineas, confirmed it to be accurate.

So why isn’t the media blaring it?

Here’s the rub, the decrease in America’s public debt has absolutely nothing to do with Trump or his economic policies.

Maya MacGuineas said that “It is true the debt outstanding declined by $12 billion in the first month of Donald Trump’s presidency. We applaud the president for focusing on the debt as an important metric of success and economic health, but would point out that the improvement this early in his term has to do with normal fluctuations in spending and revenues rather than new policies he has implemented.”

Therefore, if the media is not celebrating this good news as Trump expects, it’s simply because it is wishy-washy.

According to Dan Mitchell, a libertarian economist and senior fellow at the Cato Institute, “Considering that Trump hasn’t enacted any fiscal legislation, it’s a bit of a stretch for him to take credit for any changes in debt levels.”

“Debt levels go up and down in the short run based on independent factors such as quarterly tax payments and predetermined expenditure patterns,” he said.

Another reason Trump cannot take any credit for this decrease is because “the debt had actually been holding fairly steady since just before Thanksgiving, or about two months before Trump took office. It stood at $19.9 trillion as of the middle of November, came within a whisker of $20 trillion around the new year, and now stands back at $19.9 trillion again,” the Washington Times reports.

The New York Times also cites further reasons for the media’s lack of joy.

“The federal debt is determined by the government’s decisions about taxing and spending, and by the strength of the American economy. The debt was increasing rapidly in early 2009 because the economy was in free fall, and because of policy decisions made during the administration of President George W. Bush.”

The debt is rising more slowly now because economic growth has strengthened and because of policy decisions made during Mr. Obama’s administration. But the debt is on a clear upward trend. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated in January that the debt would increase by $559 billion in the current fiscal year, ending in September.

The exact amount of the debt bounces around that trend line because the Treasury borrows money by selling securities with maturities — or repayment dates — ranging from 28 days to 30 years. That creates an irregular pattern of inflows and outflows from the federal cash box.

In other words, Trump is actually enjoying the fruit of his predecessor’s labour (Obama) for which he should give thanks, not throw barbs.

Atlantic’s David Frum notes that Trump’s comparison with Obama’s first month is ‘pretty meaningless’, considering the debt increased after President Obama took office because of a stimulus package that Congress had approved before he had even been sworn in. Under the same token, Trump is still working off last year’s budget so even if there had been a real decrease, his administration can’t take credit.

So basically, Obama laboured under an inheritance of debt, just like Trump is doing at the moment. Trump might, therefore, want to pay heed to Maya MacGuineas’s wise words:

“Our economy’s debt is one of the most important metrics of the nation’s health, and a reasonable fiscal plan based on realistic economic projections will be a critical piece of a comprehensive plan to grow the economy and help American families,”

Dear President Trump, if we may add, quit coaxing praise from the media for every little achievement and let your own work speak for itself.

Oh, by the way, the national debt is expected to rise by more than $500 billion in the fiscal year ending in September. So brace yourself.

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