by Tosin Fatoyinbo

Okay, first I have to express my disappointment; I ‘googled’ the name “Jimi Agbaje” and discovered that he had no profile on Wikipedia. I thought to myself, who runs for Lagos Governor without having a profile on Wikipedia. That does not speak well of his campaign team I must say. But that is not the talking point of this piece.

It’s no longer news that Jimi Agbaje has the intention to run for governor of Lagos under the platform of the People’s Democratic Party. Lagos remains the only state in the South West yet to be ruled by any PDP led government. As it is today, the party is strategizing and re-structuring to capture Lagos for the first time since 1999.

Jimi Agbaje is a lovely man, a professional, pharmacist by profession and loved by many, yet there are questions that must be asked. History often asks us to take a peep at the timeline of the past as well as consider the events of the present; so we can set the right landmarks in the future. I have some questions for Pharmacist Jimi Agbaje… just out of curiosity.

One godfather (Tinubu) to another (Bode George) will Lagosians want this?

To imagine that Lagosians weary of the godfather factor which has dictated the way things were run since 2007 will allow the menace to reincarnate in another form is sickening and I very much doubt that this will happen. Jimi Agbaje’s defection had the strong hand of former NPA Chairman, Chief Olabode George in it. Bode George controls a faction of the PDP and is believed to be ready to flex his muscle for Agbaje.

‘Godfatherism’ is fast becoming an irritant to the Nigerian voters, they want a candidate who can stand on his own; one who will be responsible for the decisions he makes, one who won’t think twice before allocating sums for project. This is not to say that outside influence can ever be dispensed with in politics. I doubt if that will ever happen but such outside influence cannot be concentrated in just one man to whose whim and caprices the sitting executives bows. Bode George is yet another man who is seriously attempting to make up for the humiliation suffered by his dethronement as the leader of the PDP in Lagos state. Godfatherism starts gradually, Ahmed Tinubu may never have imagined that he will become this influential when he was leaving office in 2007 but today he is the godfather of all godfathers. One of the last standing godfathers in Nigeria. Agbaje’s over dependence on George is likely to hurt him. George took Agbaje to President Jonathan for a secret meeting and then came back to Lagos saying Jonathan had endorsed Agbaje but it was later revealed that the President never endorsed him but asked him to pass through the primaries and should he fail, a ministerial slot awaits him. That George could lie about the Jonathan’s decision tells it all.

So Agbaje must tell us how he plans to handle Chief Olabode George if he is elected Governor especially as insiders insist Bode Oyedele is fully in line with Bode George’s plans and will be imposed on Jimi Agbaje as his deputy gubernatorial candidate.

Closeness to APC

Agbaje must clarify his relationship with the APC – did he return to APC from DPA as newspapers and pundits keep saying that his defection was from APC to PDP recently? More importantly: when did he become a member of PDP – last two months, six months ago or two years ago? There is the strong sense within the PDP ranks that Agbaje remains close to the APC and cannot be trusted. He has the uneasy task of persuading the PDP faithful that he has severed the umbilical cord linking him APC. He visited Tinubu when he returned from his medical trip abroad which by the way, Tinubu said was a ‘consultative’ trip. Indeed.

It is no secret that there is no iota of love between the PDP and the APC. The rivalry is keen and Lagos is the battle ground of this rivalry. Thus any aspirant who has even a whiff of a connection to the APC will have a hard time convincing core PDP members.

Redefining charisma

Agbaje is indeed loved by many Lagosians, but it is not the kind of fierce passionate love that turns into votes. Barack Obama was loved passionately by the Americans in the run off to the 2008 Presidential elections. People cried at his each of his words. They loved him so much.  As the votes were announced, there was uproar all over the world. A black just got elected as the President of the most powerful nation in the world. That is the specie of passion needed to win an election. Even President Goodluck Jonathan had some of it in 2011. He ran a campaign that rode on his poor background. It was his selling point and soon pity metamorphosed into love and he got elected. Truth is, Agbaje is very much loved but he’s loved like one loves a pet, not the love politicians have, not the charismatic forceful appeal of a savior figure to whom the people look. The love that wins elections is a far cry from the love that movie stars and music artistes enjoy which is what Agbaje has at present and the records are clear: despite running a hippy campaign like Uche Ibukun Ohimai of FRESH Democratic Party in 2007, Agbaje came distant third and is yet to win a single election directly or by proxy in the history of Lagos elections.

Agbaje is the kind of tame leader who is loved for avoiding controversy largely by staying quiet on the things that matter, such as the LASU school fees hike for instance or the Lekki tollgate. Agbaje has failed to speak up on salient issues but elections are won by those who stand for something at the risk of offending those who disagree.

Too elitist

Lagosians are searching for an alternative to the elitist APC, and Agbaje does not look less elitist, he even wears a neck chain. Not like that really counts but the image he is passing around bears too much resemblance to the APC-elitist style which PDP hopes to capitalize on and he has got to address that fast.

Internal party structure lacking

Agbaje may have together with some renegade Afenifere elements, built the Democratic People’s Alliance (DPA) but as it stands this moment, he has no structure to rely on and unlike his time at DPA, he cannot simply just use his structure. He needs to have a structure within the party. He seems reliant on Bode George and Senator Ogunlewe but this might just not be sufficient. Bode George has consistently lost elections in his own polling unit since God knows when. He needs to build a formidable structure upon which he can rely to win the election in 2015. APC cannot be ousted from Alausa with a weak ‘personal’ structure which many of his supporters are pointing at. 2007 was a long time ago and it is not an unknown DPA.

Are PDP leaders sincere about winning Lagos?

And there is this little matter of how serious the PDP really is. Are they really willing and serious about been the Party in control of Lagos in 2015?

16 years, four elections and the PDP have never gathered up to 500,000 votes in a state as densely populated as Lagos. You want to ask how serious they really are. They must amass more than 1,000,000 votes in 2015 to stand any chance. Nay, more than that because Fashola about 1.5 million votes in 2011. How does the PDP intend to achieve that? How much resource are they willing to pull into it? How will the PDP dismantle the Lagos phenomenon, the man Tinubu with his deep pocket? I know there is federal might but Lagos has been impenetrable by federal might since Tinubu stood off Obasanjo some years ago over funds for the Local councils he created. In 2011, Ade Dosumu lost in his own backyard. He was defeated in his polling unit, and believe me, that is not a party that wants to win an election. They have to field a candidate who has the grassroot support. I am not sure Agbaje is that politician. And looking at his godfather Bode George – one wonders if the man is really interested in winning Lagos for PDP. In 2007, he attempted to force Hilda Funsho-Williams on Lagos PDP as its candidate. This was a woman who is not a Lagosian or a Nigerian by birth (but by marriage) and whose political experience was limited to sitting beside her husband during political meetings against an Obanikoro who had persuaded all other PDP aspirants to step down for him. It took the intervention of then President Obasanjo to ensure Koro emerged and put up a decent showing.

Again in 2011, Bode George’s political sagacity was on display as he backed Ade Dosunmu, a man who had never won any election in his entire political career to face a Raji Fashola whose political profile was on the rise.

The PDP leaders will do well to remember that Lagos is the headquarters of the APC and these men mean business. They cannot afford to lose Lagos. Let that sound loud and clear in the ears of the PDP that there is no better time to press for victory than now that APC has a divided house. If Bode George’s godfatherism has not delivered Lagos to PDP especially as he attempted to present obviously weakened candidate like Hilda Funsho-Williams, Ade Dosunmu and now Jimi Agbaje, perhaps it is time to change tactics and go for a man who can win elections.

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Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.