INEC announced the postponed of the Edo elections today, after announcing this afternoon that it will go ahead. The reason for the cancellation is the citing of security concerns by the Police and SSS, but this does not wash.
Edo state has always been a competitive state politically, but the likelihood of violence is nowhere near as high as in places like Rivers and Bayelsa. What is more interesting is that we have seen this kind of tactic before.
The 2015 general elections were supposed to hold on February 14th 2015, giving rise to ‘FeBuhari’, but were postponed by 6 weeks citing security concerns in the North-East.
That was the cover story, but the real issue was the incumbent PDP were running scared of losing the election, and needed to buy time to patch up. It failed spectacularly.
18 months later, and we are seeing similar tactics being employed by the APC. Why would they need to do this?
Osagie Ize-Iyamu is a hugely popular figure in the state, and this popularity is apparently independent of the PDP brand.
He is a formidable political operative, as evidenced by his roles as DG of Oshiomhole’s re-election campaign in 2012, and National Vice Chair of the ACN in the South-South.
In that re-election campaign, Oshio carried all 18 local governments in a landslide victory. Ize-Iyamu returned to the PDP in 2014 after a fall-out with the governor, and was co-ordinator of the Goodluck campaign in Edo state.
Again, he carried the state for the PDP with about 58% of the vote.
On the other hand, the general economic situation of the country is putting the APC on defence in the state. People are increasingly frustrated with the Buhari administration, and this is clearly affecting their popularity.
In addition, the Edo state government is owing salaries of pensioners and local government workers, like many other state governments.
The real prize in the Edo elections are the three LGs of Egor, Oredo and Ikpoba/Okha, all in Edo South senatorial district. They have a combined voter capacity of about 800,000, which is 40% of registered voters.
In fact, the seven LGs in Edo South make up 57% of registered voters. Whoever wins that district is very likely to become governor.
All accounts point to the fact that the APC is in a huge fight in that area, and have resorted to cancellation in order to buy time. It is a bad omen. The last time this happened, we know how it turned out.
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