by Michael Orodare

In 2015, just as INEC has started reciting it that election might not hold in some Northern states due to INSECURITY by the Boko Haram insurgency, the question is, if the cancellation of election in 1 out of 22 wards led to the declaration of such election ‘inconclusive’, then if the 2015 election does not hold in 3 of the 36 states of the federation, will such election be declared conclusive?

‘The Ilaje-Ese Odo federal constituency bye-election is hereby declared inconclusive, INEC will fix the date for a supplementary election’ – That was the terse but strange statement of Prof. Babatunde Odeyemi, the returning officer of last weekend’s bye-election in Ondo State which abruptly brought to an end, the over 15 hours of endless waiting for outcome of the said poll. Prof. Adeyemi after giving a breakdown of the result and admitted that there was a winner, said he would, however, not return him (the winner) and quoted an unnamed section in the country’s electoral act to give purported credence to his questionable action.

In case you have not heard, the word ‘inconclusive’ is the new theory introduced into Nigeria’s electioneering system by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The ‘inconclusive’ theory states that when there is no election in a particular community, whether as a result of voters’ apathy or failure of INEC to provide election material in the community, the Commission will declare such election inconclusive, and fix another date for a supplementary election.

The word ‘inconclusive’ came into national prominence in the November 2013 Anambra State Governorship Election, and was also brought to fore during the Ilaje/Ese-Odo bye-election in Ondo State last weekend.

Of grave concern now to political observers and lover of good governance is that if we fail to put things straight with the spate at which elections conducted by INEC in the last 6-months across the nation have been declared ‘inconclusive’, then we are gradually building a foundation of catastrophe for the 2015 general elections.

The ‘inconclusive’ theory seems to be the new system of political gerrymandering by the country’s electoral umpire and a ploy to thwart the will of the people who have spoken with their votes.

What happened at Arogbo ward II, one of the 22 wards under Ilaje/Ese-Odo Federal Constituency, at the weekend is pure voters’ apathy, a threat to security of lives of corps members and security operatives and shouldn’t have been the basis for declaring the bye-election ‘inconclusive’, where the Labour Party Candidate, Kolade Akinjo was already leading with 1298 votes.

It must be emphasised that voters’ apathy and INEC’s failure to perform its duty are two different things. Unlike the case of Anambra gubernatorial poll where INEC failed in its responsibility to provide election materials to some polling units at the right time which led to the declaration of the election ‘inconclusive’, it was a different case at Arogbo ward II in Ese-Odo LGA where aggrieved ex-militants, who insisted there will be no election in the community, not just on April 5, but also in 2015, were battle ready to unleash mayhem on innocent corps members and security operatives deployed to the community.

Their grievance was well laid out. They said since they laid down their arms some years ago they had not benefited from the Amnesty Programme of the Federal Government coordinated by the Special Adviser to the President on Niger Delta Affairs, Kingsley Kuku, who also incidentally hails from the community,

On the day of the election, the Resident Electoral Commissioner of INEC in Ondo state, Akin Orebiyi had declared to the world that election might not hold in Arogbo ward II, when the news of the activities of the ex-militants got to him.

INEC also claimed it declared the election inconclusive because the margin of 1298 votes between LP candidate, Kolade Akinjo who polled 23,926 and his PDP, opponent, Adewale Kukute, 22,628, is not sufficient to declare the LP candidate winner of the election, as the margin is minimal to the number of registered voters in the ward where election did not hold as well as the total number of rejected votes in the election.

It will also interest the world to know that voters’ turnout in Ese-Odo LGA was only 27% and the question begging for answer is what gave INEC the assurance that it will get a 20% turn out of voters in the remaining ward where election did not hold as a result of insecurity.

Equally, it is on record that there was no election at this same contentious Arogbo Ward II in 2011 while election was also cancelled in Arogbo Ward I in the 2007 gubernatorial election, and those elections were never declared ‘inconclusive’.

In 2015, just as INEC has started reciting it that election might not hold in some Northern states due to the Boko Haram insurgency, the question is, if the cancellation of election in 1 out of 22 wards led to the declaration of such election ‘inconclusive’, then if the 2015 election does not hold in 3 of the 36 states of the federation will such election be declared conclusive? This is nothing but a time bomb!

The 2015 election must therefore be declared ‘inconclusive’ if INEC fails to conduct election in 3 Northern states currently ravaged by the Boko Haram insurgency as INEC’s officials seem to have thrown decorum into thin air while propounding the ‘inconclusive’ theory. It’s never too late for the commission to call its officials to order to desist from playing the ‘inconclusive’ card as we move closer to February 2015, because it is parochial, unconstitutional, a sabotage of the electoral process and an action capable of shattering our fragile and democracy.

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Michael Olanrewaju Orodare has worked in the Office of the Chief Press Secretary to the Ondo State Governor as a Media Assistant. He has garnered experience writing in the The Nation Newspaper working with the paper’s Sunday Desk. He leans towards the Labour Party. He blogs at www.michaelorodare.blogspot.com and tweets from @MichaelOrodare

 

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