NOI Polls paints the picture of Nigeria’s recession – in figures

by Usman Alabi

Sometimes you wonder if the human mind and reaction to a particular socioeconomic condition can be statistically captured with scientific exactitude. Most times in the process of using this method to answer pertinent questions or test a hypothetical situation, the researcher ends up leaving behind noticeable traces and controversies that generates further questions. Yet this infographical statistical method still remains the expedient way of capturing the reality of a few in order to have a glimpse of the general.

This brings us to the NOIPolls result which attempt to paint a picture of the obvious socioeconomic condition of Nigerians at a time such as this. The report released for the third quarter of this year 2016 revealed that the NOIPolls Personal well being index increased by 1-point to stand at 64.9 points.

noi3The first part of the poll is the Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) made up of subcomponents which are: Standard of leaving which increased from 48.3 points in the second quarter to 49.1 in the third quarter, yet this is abysmally below average, thus indicative of the low quality of leaving in Nigeria presently; next is the physical health with 76.8 which according to the report shows that Nigerians are pleased with their physical health. One wonders what choice they have; an extensive on the field research would have revealed something much more deeper, a psychologically traumatized people who have resorted to religion and alternative medicine as a substitute to expensive private health care and underfunded government hospitals.

The next component is the Achievement in life index which stands at 53.6 and personal security index which is 69.6. The Economic situation index is 37.9 points and the standard of leaving 49.1 points. According to the report the economic situation has remained the lowest ranked indicator in the first, second and third quarter. This is perhaps an obvious truth given the reality of the economy since the beginning of the year which is a product of the drop in international oil prices, disruption and violence in the Niger delta, hyper inflation, and unfavourable economic policies which tend to look more into the future than addressing the present realities.

Social interaction index is 78.9 points. This is not a surprise because it remains our kind of substitute to proper state designed social security system. Africans live a communal live, and it is this social interaction in tandem with religion that can effectively explain how Nigerians have managed to endure the present recession in comparison with countries like Venezuela.

noi2Then lastly on the sub-component of the PWBI is religion with 88.9 points. Nigeria is a third world country; third world countries have states that falter in their responsibilities to the citizens and as a result of that religion becomes the opium of the masses, their solace, the only hope to their predicament and most times this is borne out of the fact that most religious bodies come in to effectively take over from the state by performing its responsibility.

Next on the index is the consumer confidence index (CCI) which according to the report measures the level of confidence the citizen has in the performance of overall health of the economy. The two sub-components of this index are the Present situation index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI). The PSI according to the report increased by 0.3 points to stand at 21.2 points, though the report said it indicates a slight increase, but critically 0.3 points is a deceptive increase. A careful and cynical investor would not want to bank on that to invest his capital; it is definitely far below average and indicative of how hard the biting recession affects Nigerians especially given the continuous increase in the prices of consumer goods. Comparatively and ironically, the expectation index (EI) increased by a slight 0.5 point to 83.5 points in the third quarter. The gap is perhaps wide; the PI is 21 points and then a people’s expectation that things would turn around for good stands at 83 points. This is more from the trust the people have in the present administration than in any sound economic policy or light in the present reality, Nigerians are naturally very optimistic. This expectation could also be explained as a product of the interaction between religion and social interaction indices in the PWBI. Before now, expectation or optimism of economic improvement are usually not based on economic data but on hope.

noi1Overall, the most important aspects of the PWBI are the economic index and standard of leaving index of the people. The result of both is almost a near to perfect indication of the socioeconomic situation of the people given the recession, the other sub-components which includes religion, social interaction, health all depends on these two factors, a state that does well economically is likely to have a low religious index and vice versa, also the increased social interaction is the tool of Nigerians against recession, a form of social security.

However, whether these important aspects of the PWBI would increase subsequently depends on the present drivers of the economy.

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