Two dates “Oct. 10 and Oct. 18” which connotes two important political events have being forecasted to possibly birth new missile tests by North Korea, CNBC reports.
The events, the 72nd anniversary of North Korea’s ruling Workers Party and China’s 19th Party Congress are two incredibly major events that could invoke some kind of provocation from the pariah nation.
Scott Seaman, Asia director at political consultancy Eurasia, in a recent note said, “Both events are good opportunities for Kim to make headlines, and intelligence suggests that Pyongyang is moving missiles to prepare for another test”.
• The Party Foundation Day opportunity
Called the Party Foundation Day, Oct. 10 is an annual public holiday in the communist state, which is typically celebrated by military parades, speeches and performances. A ballistic missile test could be part of the activities this year as well.
“The North Koreans love to fire off their missiles or have their nuclear tests coincide with a big anniversary. That’s the way they operate….On the 10th, there might be some kind of missile fired,” Evelyn Farkas, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” on Monday.
On Oct. 15 last year, Pyongyang carried out its seventh test of the intermediate-range ballistic missile known as Musudan and followed up with another test on Oct 19.
It should be recalled that, a Russian lawmaker Anton Morozov, speculated after a visit to Pyongyang last week that, he believes Kim “intends to launch one more long-range missile in the near future. “They are preparing for new tests of a long-range missile. They even gave us mathematical calculations that they believe prove that their missile can hit the West Coast of the United States,” Russia’s RIA news quoted him as saying.
• China’s Oct. 18 biggest political event could also present a good opportunity
The all-important Chinese Congress, hailed as the mainland’s ‘Game of Thrones,’ which will decide the leadership of China’s Communist Party for the next five years could present Kim a perfect day to put on a show of defiance for the international community.
Farkas said, “The relationship between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kim is ‘pretty bad’. They have a lack of respect for one another — that’s been exacerbated lately by the fact that the Chinese have jumped in with us [the United States] under the umbrella of U.N. sanctions.”
Last month, under pressure from Washington and in compliance with the U.N.’s latest resolution, China announced its intention to restrict trade with North Korea on significant items, like textiles, seafood and petroleum products, including a ban on Chinese lenders, restricting them from doing business with North Korean clients.