Cheta Nwanze: Nigeria is a failed state

I’ve published versions of this before, first on my now defunct blog in 2010. Then on Daily Times, and YNaija in 2011. The most recent reiteration was on Olisa.TV in 2015. Each time, it is updated a little, each time, servants of those occupying power in Abuja at the time come after me, but the underlying message remains the same. Nigeria is a failed state.

However, what Nigerians need to understand is that state failure is not the end. We can turn it around, and we should. But, turning it around means first accepting where we are. Until we do that, the chances of a snowball in hell are much better than that of our turning around the situation Nigeria finds itself in…

Power cuts have become an increasingly common occurrence since democracy was reintroduced in Nigeria sixteen years ago now. Most Nigerians have made provision for this norm, by having generators. In some cases, there is the added luxury of a power inverter, which, for those who can afford it, brings the costs of maintaining their generators down by a good chunk. Some of us have gone extra, and now have solar panels installed on our roofs. I belong to this number, and my petrol costs on my generator, went down a large chunk. It must be said for those living in Lagos and Abuja however, that power has improved tremendously since the calendar turned to August. But my parents in the village, and many others whom I interact with, and who live outside of the big two, still have it really bad.

If you live and work in Lagos, chances are you have an early start to the work day. This early start is occasioned by the not so good roads in our state; and the dearth of reliable alternatives (very limited use of rail and waterways), this means that millions of other people in the city have to wake up at unholy hours in order to beat the massive rush-hour traffic and get to work on time. A word must be said here about recent moves by the current government to build ramps along choke points. Seeing the effect of one of such at Iyana-Oworo makes me wonder why no one thought about it before. Well done Ambode…

However, so many Lagosians still spend an undue amount of time in traffic, and do not get any proper rest as a result. As a result, they have collectively become very irritable, and many have developed stress-related ailments such as high blood pressure. All this contributes to Nigeria’s rather low life expectancy of 53.

Traffic and electricity are not the only issues that bother Nigerians. A glance at any of today’s papers shows the following: News from the North-East regarding the unfortunate treatment of IDPs; secessionist agitation in the South-East, bolstered by militancy from the South-South; Fulani herdsmen on the rampage in the Middle Belt; increasing cases of food shortage in the North-West and North-East; a collapsing education system aided by a Minister of Education who has no idea what he is doing; polio has returned to the country; Nigeria’s most important road, located in the South-West, is in a state of near collapse; armed robbery is on the rise.

Our hospitals are so bad that even the President himself had to bugger off to the UK when he needed to clean his ears. Clearly, the President himself has absolutely no faith in what passes for medical care here, and do you blame him? This morning, there was a report about a lack of drugs in the State House clinic. The President’s actions show that he thinks that the nation he is sworn to serve might just be a failed state.

Since 2005, Foreign Policy magazine has published an annual index called the “Failed States Index”. This index only assesses sovereign states (determined by membership in the United Nations). Several territories are excluded until their political status and UN membership are ratified in international law. For example, Taiwan, the Palestinian Territories, Northern Cyprus, Kosovo, and Western Sahara are not included in the list, even though some are recognised as sovereign nations by some other countries.

The index’s ranks are based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability: four social, two economic and six political. These indicators are not designed to forecast when countries may experience violence or collapse. Rather, they measure a country’s vulnerability to collapse or conflict.

One of the social indicators is demographic pressures occasioned by high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources. This means that the pressure from a population’s settlement patterns and physical settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land, access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical sites, and proximity to environmental hazards. Does this affect Nigeria? Our population is very large, one of the top ten on the planet. Can we feed ourselves? Do we have border disputes amongst communities in Nigeria? Do we have conflicts over who owns what within certain areas? What about indigene-settler dichotomy?

Another social indicator is massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples. Nigeria has, in the last decade, witnessed the largest internal migration in our history. Sadly, it is largely undocumented, but it’s there. I have, with my own eyes, seen Hausa communities spring up in Igboland, and the friction that follows. The village of Onyeama, close to Enugu has a large population of Hausa speakers, as does Amansea just down the road. In Benue, it’s worse. I have been to IDP camps in Adamawa state, in Nasarawa and in Plateau. We don’t seem to accept that this is happening in our country. There is large scale movement of people, running from conflict, in Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue and Plateau. In March 2015, I counted seven abandoned communities on the road from Obi in Nasarawa to Awe in the same state. A three-hour drive!

The third social indicator is the legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance. Think MASSOB. Think Arewa. Think OPC. Think the Middle Belt, as documented in this report about a largely ignored problem in Nigeria’s food basket.

The final social indicator is chronic and sustained human flight, where both the “brain drain” of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of “the middle class” and the growth of exile/expat communities are indicators of a failed state. To check the truth of this one, with regards Nigeria, all you need to do is take a census at our airports. The sheer number of people who are leaving the country with no intention of returning in the near future is mind-numbing.

Now, the first economic indicator is uneven economic development along group lines. This is usually determined by group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status. It is also measured by group-based poverty levels, infant mortality rates, and education levels. Again, we do not have to go far to see examples of this. The constant cry of marginalisation by groups from all parts of Nigeria, be it from the East, from the Delta, from the West and even from the North, is testament to this. And they are indeed marginalised. The Delta, which produces 90% of our nation’s current wealth, has seen a lot of its youth take up arms because they feel cheated. The East constantly cries out about marginalisation. Outside of Lagos, the rest of Western Nigeria is nothing to write home about, not that Lagos in itself is an example of paradise. Then there is the North…

The fact is, Lagos, our economic capital, is an almost extreme example of what we call in socio-economics, a prime city. In economic terms, Lagos is 40% of Nigeria. All 19 states of the former Northern Region, Abuja excluded, is just over 20% of Nigeria’s economy. The remainder is shared by the 16 remaining states. A country cannot work that way. Not at all.

The second economic indicator is sharp and/or severe economic decline, which is measured by a progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (using: per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates, poverty levels, business failures). What this means is a sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments. Other criteria for measurement include: collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight; failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments. Where does this sound like?

There are four political indicators of a failed state.

The first one is criminalisation or de-legitimisation of the state which is exemplified by endemic corruption or profiteering by the ruling elite and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation. This also includes any widespread loss of popular confidence in national institutions and processes. With the exception of the recent presidential elections, which were largely seen as relatively free and fair, the average Nigerian has zero confidence in the ability of the Nigerian state to get anything done. Corruption is endemic in our country, and hypocrite that I am, I have participated in, err, rogering the occasional police officer.

The next political indicator is the progressive deterioration of public services. A disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation and power.

The remaining three indicators are problems that, to be fair and honest, while present in Nigeria, might not yet be on a scale that are a cause for alarm. To be fair and honest, we had these indicators in abundance during the Abacha era. The first one is a widespread violation of human rights when the country’s security apparatus become a ‘state within a state’ and operates with impunity. Think of the occasional ‘accidental discharge’, such as the one that happened to poor Beauty Mcleod recently. The second indicator of a failed state is the rise of factionalised elites, a fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines. Does this presidential campaign just past remind anyone of this factor? Does the bolekaja in the National Assembly regarding the Senate President ring a bell?

The final indicator of a failed state is the intervention of other nations. We have not gotten there yet, but if we continue on the path we are on, who knows, we might have US Marines on our shores seeking to “protect the energy security of the United States”. After all, we humiliatingly needed the help of Chad to beat Boko Haram, and some Japanese chap just landed in Rio to pay bonuses for our footballers.

The sad reality is that 11 indicators out of 12 are present in our country in one form or the other. The 12th is one that will come if we continue living in denial and pretending that there’s nothing seriously wrong in our country.

Heaven helps those who help themselves. It is high time we stop praying and get working.

– Edit: I’m sad to admit that I think that in about a year or two, I’ll have to update this again.


This article was first published on HERE

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

cool good eh love2 cute confused notgood numb disgusting fail