by Demola Rewaju

Notwithstanding this, I am willing to predict again: that whichever candidate APC presents, it will lose the 2015 presidential elections and the invariables are there:

There is a course known as political science but politics can never be referred to as a pure science. It is scientific in that some aspects of it can be observed and learnt but it is not always in accord with pure scientific rules where 2 + 2 will always result in 4; in politics, 2 + 2 can easily be 22.

There are variable and invariable factors in politics. The invariable factors I did not take into account in predicting that only one governor will decamp from PDP include Rivers’ Governor Rotimi Amaechi’s ability to convince the north that he is truly ready to play the spoiler for the south-south bid to gain another term in office through Jonathan, APC’s shameless pursuit of PDP governors and the intransigence of the Goodluck Jonathan camp.

Notwithstanding all these, my prediction was blatantly wrong.

Notwithstanding this, I am willing to predict again: that whichever candidate APC presents, it will lose the 2015 presidential elections and the invariables are there:

APC is a party of disgruntled elements and strange bedfellows who will find it difficult to agree on a common candidate. The interests that each of the decampees as well as the original stakeholders have brought into the camp are bound to clash at one point or the other and signs of thee are already emerging from Adamawa where Marwa and others refuse to be led by Gov. Murtala Nyako to Kano where former Governor Shekarau still sees himself as the leader ahead of Gov. Rabiu Kwankwaso. Those interested in running for the office of the president from the north may find an obstacle in Buhari’ influence which if he doesn’t contest will surely play a role in determining how effective the APC machinery is up north. The ability of this party to resolve the internal crises that are bound to occur will be crucial to its survival and I doubt that it has such ability.

The second invariable problem of this party will be structures: forget the hype about it transforming to a national party – where the former PDP governors have defected, the party machinery remains PDP albeit under new leaders. In Kano, Kwankwaso is being replaced with Mohammed Abacha who decamped to PDP and the party machinery there is still intact. In Rivers, Nyesom Wike is the new henchman as Amaechi has decamped. This scenario is still in play all over the nation and in most states, PDP still remains the party to beat or the alternative party in forthcoming elections.

Lastly, the awesome powers of an incumbent can never be discounted. Jonathan’s camp has so far shown its ability to withstand all sorts of heat without responding with fury. As yet, the APC is leading in the media wars and this may be its greatest undoing as public tides in Nigeria usually turn after a while and 2014 may just be the year when the Jonathan camp starts returning fire for fire and ultimately breaks the public solidarity APC is presently enjoying.

Based on these invariables, I can safely say PDP will win the 2015 presidential elections but then, the invariable factors may yet prove me wrong. Again. But the fear of being wrong does not deter some of us from making presumptuous and audacious predictions.

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This post is published with permission from Demola Rewaju

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.