The Chairman, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Asue Ighodalo says 91 million Nigerians now live below the poverty line.

The World Bank estimates that an additional one million people were pushed into poverty in Nigeria between June and November 2021, resulting in a total of about 8 million people being relinquished to poverty in 2021 and bringing our nation’s poverty headcount to about 91 million.  

He adds that the number increases the number of Nigerians suffering from the poverty virus, making it more deadly than the coronavirus.

Before that period Ighodalo mentions, inflation rose to 18.17 per cent, the highest in four years in Nigeria. This decreased the purchasing power of many Nigerians, as people paid close to five times what they paid for the same quality of goods and services in 2014. That situation plunged many households into poverty. Inflation was a significant driver of poverty in Nigeria in 2021.

Besides poverty, inflation caused other problems that affected the economy, including dire insecurity issues, inadequate infrastructure, exchange rate hikes, poor economic policies, and increased debt profile.

In a report published recently, a United Nations arm, UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) mentions that “extreme poverty in Western Africa increased by nearly 3 per cent last year (2021), according to a new report on the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 published today by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).“

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The report, completed in partnership with the West Africa Sub-Regional Office for the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), indicates that the proportion of people in the region living with less than $1.90 a day increased from 2.3 per cent in 2020 to 2.9 per cent in 2021. The debt burdens of countries in the region have also increased in the context of slow economic recovery, shrinking fiscal space and weak resource mobilisation.

The poverty conversation is coming as the Debt Management Office disclosed that Nigeria’s Public Debt was ₦38.005 trillion by the third quarter of 2021. The total debt stock rose by ₦2.540 trillion in three months from June 30 to September 30, 2021.

With Nigeria’s increasing debt profile in view, and announcement that Nigeria will need to borrow more and more, especially to fund the 2022 budget and the addition of ₦3 trillion for fuel subsidy, the country’s Finance Minister, Dr Zainab Ahmed has projected that its National Development Plan (NDP) will lift 35 million Nigerians out of poverty and create 21 million jobs within the next three years.

She says the federal and state governments as well as the private sector will fund the plan, with an investment size of ₦348.1 trillion. The funders from the public sector will contribute ₦49.7 trillion, subnational will contribute ₦20.1 trillion, while ₦29.6 trillion will come from the Federal Government. The private sector is projected to contribute ₦298.3 trillion to funding the Plan.

According to her, the NDP is aimed at accelerating growth, deepening the initiative for diversified growth and fostering sustainable development.

What is poverty?

The World Bank Organisation describes poverty in this way:

“Poverty is hunger. Poverty is lack of shelter. Poverty is being sick and not being able to see a doctor. Poverty is not having access to school and not knowing how to read. Poverty is not having a job, is fear for the future, living one day at a time.

“Poverty has many faces, changing from place to place and across time, and has been described in many ways.  Most often, poverty is a situation people want to escape. So poverty is a call to action — for the poor and the wealthy alike — a call to change the world so that many more may have enough to eat, adequate shelter, access to education and health, protection from violence, and a voice in what happens in their communities.”

A short timeline of poverty related promises

As of 2010, 7 out of 10 Nigerians were considered poor. And according to a study from the Centre for Global Development, most of the poor are from the north of the country, with more than two-thirds at risk of spending their lifetime in poverty. This is despite a rise in the country’s GDP per capita by about 19 per cent and a decline in the level of inequality.

Foreign Policy

President Muhammadu Buhari in the 61st independence anniversary broadcast rehashed his government’s pledge to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years, saying the target was achievable. He may have forgot to mention that a high inflation rate, and a rising unemployment profile, all made worse by a devalued naira may be the clog in the wheel.

But he sounded confident, noting that he has approved the expansion of the beneficiaries of the administration’s social investment programme, N-Power, from 500,000 to 1,000,000.

“Out of this, 510,000 have started the programme while the competitive selection process for onboarding the outstanding 490,000 beneficiaries is in progress,” Buhari said.

“The National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme is currently being implemented in 35 States of the Federation and the FCT. Over 103,000 women have been engaged and empowered as cooks under the programme, while about 10 million pupils are being fed across public primary schools in the country.

“To grant increased access to credit to the most poor and vulnerable, I have directed an increase in the disbursement of Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme loans to an additional one million beneficiaries laying more emphasis on the smallholding farmers through the farmers Moni program,” he added.

Earlier, on Democracy Day in 2021, President Buhari said his administration has lifted 10.5 million people out of poverty in two years. He was referencing the pledge he made in 2019 to lift 100 million people out of poverty.

According to President Buhari, the National Social Investment programme is “a first in Africa and one of the largest in the world where over 32.6 million beneficiaries are taking part. We now have a National Social register of poor and vulnerable households, identified across 708 local government areas, 8,723 wards and 86,610 communities in the 36 States and the FCT.

“Our conditional cash transfer program has benefited over 1.6 million poor and vulnerable households comprising more than 8 million individuals. This provides a monthly stipend of ₦10,000 per household.”

That is 135 million Nigerians projected to be lifted out of poverty, 124.5 million, assuming 10.5 million (a questionable number) have truly been cured of the pandemic.

Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo stated in 2021, at the edition of the Nigerian Diaspora Investment Summit 2021 organised by the Nigerians in the Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM), that Nigeria’s projected real GDP growth from 2021 will make sure 10 million more Nigerians don’t fall into poverty and lift 25 million out of poverty.

Clearly, there are programmes geared towards poverty eradication and economic development, funded with billions of naira, yet the number has reached 91 million and may experience a signficant increase now that there would be a focus on the 2023 general elections.

The reality

Even though projections have been made and schemes formed to reduce the number of poverty-stricken Nigerian citizens, up to the middle class (or beyond) over the next decade, the absolute number of poor people in Nigeria will still increase by some 20 million due to rapid population growth.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, on average, 4 out of 10 individuals in Nigeria have real per capita expenditures below ₦137,430 per year, which translates to ₦376.5 per day. With an increasing population, and many families’ ignorance of birth control, the number may increase to 7 out of 10 individuals.

The way forward?

Weforum lists three things Nigeria must do to truly achieve such an ambitious goal.