“APC’s a fragile anti-Jonathan establishment” || How an American think-thank described the opposition

by Kolapo Olapoju

All Progressives Congress (APC) has been described as a “fragile anti-Jonathan establishment” by Brookings, the World’s most influential think-tank based in the United States.

Brookings, while making election projections for Nigeria, says the presidential poll will be tightly contested, but however, predicted a victory for President Jonathan, over General Muhammadu Buhari.

The report of the think-tank regarding the 2015 elections is contained in the Brookings publication titled: “Foresight Africa – Top Priorities for the continent (January 2015).”

Brookings said the opposition has the sole objective of returning power to the north, adding that, “Though the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still favor President Jonathan.”

The publication said: “The party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its quest to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power returned to the north. The APC gets much of its strength from tapping into anti-Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political appointments.”

The Report stressed that the APC’s strategy is contingent on a combination of popular votes from the North West, North East and “the battleground South West”, stating further that contrary to widespread belief, Bola Ahmed Tinubu may possibly not deliver the region.

“What remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State who played a pivotal role in the formation of the APC and is considered to be the party’s strongest mobilizer in the South West will be very enthusiastic in delivering the battleground southwest to the APC during the elections.”

“Tinubu indicated his interest in being the party’s vice presidential candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the party’s strategists felt that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement the PDP’s labeling of the APC as an Islamic party.”

Brooking also lauded President Jonathan’s performance, which it says has been impressive, in spite of the constant terror attacks of Islamic terrorist sect, Boko Haram.

“Despite Boko Haram—the country is thriving: The economy continues to grow and with the rebasing of its GDP, became the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world. Jonathan’s supporters also point to his success in containing the Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and institutions around the world.”

The report also highlighted the incumbency advantage, as one that will give the Peoples Democratic Party, an upper hand.

“The greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its power of incumbency, and all the institutional support that goes with it. Not only does it have federal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key institutions”

Stressing on the possibility of post-election violence regardless of the winner, the report added: “Post-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the APC loses while renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan does.”