“Even though the Naira was devalued, inflation eased” – NBS

by Tunji Andrews

In November 2014, the pace of price increases observed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation eased for the third consecutive month. Prices rose by 7.9 percent (year-on-year), down by 0.2 percentage points from 8.1 percent recorded in October. The slower pace of price increases recorded by the Headline index was as a result of a slower rise in food prices as well as other divisions that yield the Headline index.

After peaking in August this year at 10.0 percent (year-on-year), the food index has continued to moderate. The Food index rose by 9.1 percent (year-on-year) in November, down by 0.2 percentage points lower from 9.3 percent recorded in October. Following the same trend observed in the Headline index, this is the third consecutive month where advances in food prices have been relatively muted. While the majority of groups that contribute to the food index declined, price increases were observed in the Vegetables and Coffee, Tea and Cocoa groups. Meats increased at roughly the same pace relative to October.

Price movements recorded by the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index moved at roughly the same pace for the fourth consecutive month at 6.3 percent (year-on-year). Increases were observed in the Liquid and Solid Fuels, Non-durable Household Goods, Garments, and Passenger Transport by Road groups. Other groups and Divisions that contribute to the index exhibited slower increases.
The Headline index rose by 0.59 percent (month-on-month) in November, marginally higher from 0.51 recorded in October. Prices increased in most COICOP divisions that yield the headline index prices but eased in the Education, Restaurants and Hotels, Alcoholic Beverages, and Tobacco and Narcotics Divisions.

Year-on-year, the pace of increase of both Urban and Rural prices eased for the third consecutive month in November. The Urban Composite CPI rose by 7.9 percent, down by 0.2 percentage points from October, while the Rural Composite CPI eased marginally, rising by 7.9 percent in November.

Urban prices increased at a faster pace in November; by 0.6 percent (month-on-month) relative to 0.5 percent recorded in the previous three months. The pace of increases in the Rural All-items index also picked up, increasing by 0.6 percent, from 0.5 percent in October.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in November over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was recorded at 8.0 percent. The corresponding 12-month year-on- year average percentage change for the Urban index was 8.2 percent in November unchanged from rates recorded in October, while the corresponding Rural index was also unchanged in November increasing by 7.9 percent.

Food index

The onset of the harvest season has continued to bring consumers a respite from higher food prices after food prices peaked in August. Prices as measured by the food sub-index rose by 9.1 percent in November, 0.2 percentage points lower from rates recorded in October.
On a month-on-month basis, food prices increased by 0.6 percent in November, after reaching the year’s low in October.
On a month-on-month basis, the highest price increases were recorded in the Coffee, Tea and Cocoa; Fish, Meat and Fruit groups. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve- month period ending in November 2014 over the previous twelve month average was 9.5 percent. The twelve month rate of change has held steady for six consecutive months.

All items less farm produce

The pace of increases in the “All items less Farm Produce” or Core index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural has increased at the same pace for the fourth consecutive month in November. Prices rose by 6.3 percent (year-on- year).

On a month-on-month basis, the pace of price increase has also been constant for a third consecutive month at 0.6 percent. The highest increases were recorded in the Garments, Medical Services, Solid Fuels; and Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils groups. The average 12 month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 7.0 percent for the twelve-month period ending in November 2014, down from the 12 month rate recorded in October which was recorded at 7.1 percent.

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

cool good eh love2 cute confused notgood numb disgusting fail