by Amanze Obi
Three months down the line, I am of the considered opinion that the emergency rule which government embarked upon may turn out to be the ultimate dilemma that the Jonathan administration may be facing. Regardless of the efforts of the JTF, the sect is still unleashing terror in the land.
The state of emergency which the Federal Government of Nigeria declared in three North East States of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe does not seem to be achieving its desired objective. This is in spite of the many claims of the Joint Task Force (JTF).
Government had, on May 14, 2013 imposed emergency rule in the affected states to check the excesses and mindless bloodletting of the Islamic sect called Boko Haram. But the emergency rule was not total. All democratic institutions in the states were left intact. Many thought it should have been otherwise especially in the face of the suspicion that some of the governors may have been aiding and abating the activities of Boko Haram. Based on this and other critical elements which many thought should be part of emergency rule, there were doubts and reservations here and there as to whether the diluted emergency rule in the affected states would achieve its target.
Three months down the line, I am of the considered opinion that the emergency rule which government embarked upon may turn out to be the ultimate dilemma that the Jonathan administration may be facing. Regardless of the efforts of the JTF, the sect is still unleashing terror in the land. The other week, the terrorists invaded a school and killed as many as they cared. Government and its security forces were caught napping. In fact, stories of death and destruction in the emergency states have continued to dominate the headlines. What this means is that the JTF has failed to rein in the terrorists.
Government admitted this much when it decided, a few days ago, to create another division of the Nigerian Army with headquarters in Maiduguri, Borno State. The development clearly shows that the division that has been overseeing the war in the North East has been overwhelmed by the situation and therefore needs to be assisted. That is the story the creation of the new division tells.
Again, like the half-hearted declaration of state of emergency which government undertook some three months ago, the creation of a new division of the Nigerian Army in Borno may make some impact. But it will not win the peace that government is looking for. For the desired objective to be achieved, government must admit to itself that the situation it has on hand is that of war. That being the case, government must be prepared to face facts. It must ruffle feathers if it wants to succeed in its mission.
Since the situation in the affected territories is that of war, sentiments and niceties have no place in it. Unfortunately, government is weighed down by such considerations. It wants to be seen to be promoting democratic rule even in places where law and order have broken down. This is pretentious. It amounts to denying the facts of the situation. You cannot win a war by wearing kid gloves.
The fact of the matter is that the situation in the North requires a completely radical approach. Democratic rule in the affected states may have to be put in abeyance as a demonstration that all is not well. The present arrangement is failing because lapses are being created in the bid to allow democracy and democratic institutions to thrive. Fighting a war and paying heed to such considerations are strange bedfellows.
Perhaps, government is in a dilemma because it has not realized that the situation is one of war. I argued when this partial emergency was declared three months ago that government would face a dilemma over its actions. I had reasoned then that the terrorists would only beat a retreat and return whenever the emergency rule is relaxed. Given the possibility of such scenario, government would then be forced to remain in the trenches perpetually. What is the prospect of this kind of scenario for Nigeria? The question is fraught with possibilities and probabilities none of which will be easy to put in a straightjacket.
To win the peace then, government has to change its approach. It must realize that the threat to peace by Boko Haram is both real and telling. While seeking to bring down the insurgency in the land, government must consider calling a spade by its proper name. The insurgents will continue to wax strong so long as they have the sympathies of some powerful elements in the land. Government has to have a programme to tackle them. If this is done, JTF and a new army division will then be mere icing on the cake.
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