by Ugo Okeke
Come June 2015, new leaders of the National assembly would emerge and it will be dominated by All Progressives Congress (APC) members.
In terms of geo-political zones, the President-elect, General Muhammadu Buhari, is from the Northwest and the Vice President-elect, Professor Yemi Osinbajo (SAN), is from the Southwest. The Senate President, according to insiders, is likely to be zoned the Northcentral with Senators Bukola Saraki and George Akume as the major contenders.
Saraki, a one time Governor of Kwara state is a more formidable force within the APC leadership. He enjoys tremendous goodwill, and is said to be amongst the leaders within the party ranks. But being a Yoruba man may hinder his chances as the vice president is of the Yoruba ethnic group as well.
The contender for this position is George Akume, is already Senate Minority Leader. He stands a good chance, owing to Buhari’s surprising victory in Benue State, where he is the undisputed leader of the APC.
The contest for the position of the number four citizen would also be hotly contested as Speaker, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal will not be returning to the House in the next dispensation. He is the APC governorship candidate in Sokoto State and another chieftain has been elected to replace him.
The race will also be between geopolitical zones. The Minority Leader, Femi Gbajabiamila, a lawyer and a founding member of the APC, has an outstanding record in the House. He is held in high esteem by the party leadership. He is an experienced legislator who has a good understanding of the House rules. With his re-election, he is going for a third term.
Gbajabiamila also enjoys the affection and goodwill of his leader and benefactor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the APC National Leader. He is also close to the Vice President-elect. However, Gbajabiamila is from Lagos.
It can be argued that Prof. Osinbajo is from Lagos, having served there as the Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, although he is a native of Ikenne-Remo, Ogun State. Insiders have said this might be an obstacle.
The Northeast also appears to be in contention. If the slot is zoned there, it would most likely be contested by two lawyers. The first is Yakubu Dogara from Bauchi State who is the Chairman, House Committee on House Services. With his re-election, he will be going to the House for the third time although he defected from the PDP before the general elections. Insiders say he stood a good chance had he been a long term member of the APC.
Also, it is believed that the APC may zone the slot to Borno as a compensation for two reasons. First, the fact that, since 1999, Borno has been in the opposition right from the days of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), which merged with other legacy parties to form the APC.
Yobe State has the same history. But, the state has produced the APC National Secretary. Thus, its chance of producing the Speaker is low, although the party leader, former Governor Abba Ibrahim, a senator, will definitely want the position to be zoned to the state.
The other is Monguno Mohammed, a lawyer, who is the Chairman, House Committee on Agriculture and also a member of the Constitutional Review Committee. With his re-election, Monguno is serving a third term. He was first elected into the House of Representatives in 1992 on the platform of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). Between 2003 and 2007, he was the Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, and later, Commissioner for Education. He is also the Chairman, Borno Caucus in the
House.
One factor that could however, hinder Borno’s chances of getting the slot is balance of interest on the issue of ministerial slots. Borno is entitled to a ministerial slot, but it is also eyeing the extra slot to be allocated to the Northeast. Each region is constitutionally entitled to one ministerial slot.
There are some APC chieftains from Borno who want to serve as ministers. This may be an obstacle to the zoning of the position of the Speaker to the state. It may be difficult for the state to get the Speaker and two ministers.
Permutations in the APC-controlled Senate could also be an impediment to Borno. Senator Mohammed Ali Ndume stands a chance of clinching a principal office. Ndume, the Chairman, Senate Committee on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), was the Minority Leader in the House from 1999 to 2011 before becoming a senator. He is from Borno South District.
