by Cheta Nwanze

Before I dropped it as a subject in favour of Calculus, and thus failed to see into my future, I took some classes in Economics. In one of the earlier classes, we were told that some of the important factors to consider when siting a business are accessibility to the markets, cost of production, but above all, proximity to raw materials. Not long afterwards, I dropped Economics, moved over to the Calculus class, and began the journey towards being an engineer. Forward the hands of the clock two decades, and I now have to read reports that deal with economics everyday at work.

One of such reports that was brought to my attention was a statement by Dr. Maikanti Baru, that the NNPC was looking at building a pipeline to service the Kaduna refinery, all the way from Agadem, in Niger Republic. My first reaction was, “Good!”

You see, fact is, there are parts of Niger Republic, that are closer to parts of Nigeria. So for example, the Nigerian city of Sokoto will for centuries to come have more in common with the important Nigerien town of Birnin Konni, than it will with Benin City, except for the fact that by virtue of a cartographer’s pen 132 years ago, they are now in different countries.

Going by this reasoning, it will actually make a lot of sense, to construct a pipeline to a refinery in northern Nigeria from oil fields in Niger Republic. However, as always, the devil is in the detail.

When you consider that Kaduna is actually in Nigeria’s Middle Belt, not the far north, and then consider that Agadem is some ways off, deep inside Niger Republic, then finally compare the distance between both with the distance between Kaduna and the Niger Delta, you find that the Niger Delta is actually just slightly 200km closer to Kaduna than Agadem is. Which brings the question, how smart is this pipeline?

Now, consider this — another reason Dr. Baru gave, which makes sense at first glance, is that the activities of Niger Delta militants have crippled supply to the Kaduna refinery. Sadly, Dr. Baru’s reasoning does not take into account Niger Republic’s own history of agitation.

In September, Adam Tcheke Koudigan, an ethnic Toubou, who claims to be the leader of the Movement for Justice and the Rehabilitation of Niger, threatened attacks. The Toubou, as an ethnic group, are located in Chad, Libya, and you guessed it, Eastern Niger. Where Agadem is located.

Another group, Movement of Niger People for Justice, has kinda made seizing of staff of the China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation a cottage industry. CNECC has pulled out of Niger a number of times over the kidnap of their staff. Terrorist/rebel/freedom fighter groups, make it a habit to compare notes on a regular basis. Will it be a stretch to imagine that these two groups won’t attack a spanking new pipeline that goes through territory they consider to be theirs?

In all, the fact is though, we can not, and should not, give in to the politics of fear. However, in not giving in, we should use some sense. The North-East of Nigeria, and the South-East of Niger Republic, desperately need something doing. If something is found doing around there, then there will be that chance that economic activities will pick up, and all of these movements of crazies will be pushed to the real fringes, where they belong.

With that in mind, I have another map in mind.

Maiduguri is a major city in Nigeria that is closer to Agadem then Kaduna is to either Agadem or Port Harcourt.

Some context here:

An estimated $1 billion would be required to construct the proposed 1,000-kilometre crude oil pipeline from Agadam in Niger Republic to Nigeria’s Kaduna Refinery and Petrochemical Company. The standard cost for laying a pipeline is $1 million per kilometre, while distance and terrain are key determinants in cost, said Dolapo Oni, head of energy research at Ecobank. Experts add that the cost of feasibility studies and other ancillary activities could further take the cost of the pipeline to $2 billion, should the Federal Government see through the proposal.

Building this pipeline could cost about $2 billion. And then multinational rebels in two countries could render that $2 billion worthless. Building a new refinery, may cost upwards $5 billion, depending on the refinery’s output. Taking the $1 million cost per kilometre of pipeline into play, that will slap an additional $0.6 billion on the $5 billion, and the economic fallout from the activity will lift Nigeria’s North-East up, and reduce the incentive to blow the pipes (if we handle it well). Does it not make more sense to spend three times the money for an infinite amount of gain?

Heck, rather than build a new refinery in Maiduguri, we may well dismantle Kaduna Refinery and move it there. It will cost half as much.

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Op–ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija