YNaija Analysis: Can Olusola Oke take advantage of disarray in the PDP and APC?

The Ondo governorship campaign has amplified the divisions in the PDP and APC, and Olusola Oke could be the direct beneficiary of this.

Oke himself defected from the APC, after a primary process he called ‘corrupt’. That primary saw the emergence of Rotimi Akeredolu who narrowly defeat Olusegun Abraham, said to be the choice of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. There was a contest over delegates who were changed at the last moment, and the result was a blistering letter from Tinubu, demanding the resignation of the APC chairman, John Oyegun.

That did not happen, and as such Tinubu and those who support him have stayed away from Akeredolu’s campaign. There have also been reports that Tinubu’s funding of the APC headquarters has come to an end.

Tensions in the APC have come to nearly boiling point, but in the PDP the fight for control has been on for a while, with Ondo being the latest battleground. Factions representing Ali Modu-Sheriff and Ahmed Makarfi have been doing battle in the courts, and held separate primaries for the Ondo elections. The candidate of the Modu-Sheriff faction, Jimoh Ibrahim, took part in Monday’s only governorship debate. Now, after losing both at the Appeal Court and the Supreme Court, Ibrahim’s candidacy is now at an end.

The question remains how this could affect the PDP’s organisation on the ground. Ahmed Makarfi has already said that INEC should postpone the elections, to enable the party verify polling agents. If this extension is not granted, it could pose a problem for Eyitayo Jegede, as polling agents could look the other way. He wants a postponement of at least 30 days.

Jegede is the former Attorney-General of the State, and Mimiko’s choice to replace him. He will have the governor’s full backing, as well as the backing of the rest of the PDP governors who side with the Makarfi faction. He certainly won’t be short of cash.

After his failure in 2012, Rotimi Akeredolu moved back to Ondo to be more in tune with the people he wants to lead. The extent to which this has been successful remains to be seen at the ballot box, but it is instructive that he skipped the only governorship debate held on Monday, because he was campaigning in Ilaje, where Olusola Oke is incidentally from.

Ilaje is the second biggest local government, one of the two Oke won in 2012. A good performance there could boost Akeredolu’s bid, but the lack of unity in the APC is likely to affect him. There are even rumours that Tinubu is supporting Oke’s campaign, a rumour the former legal adviser of the PDP has strenuously denied.

Olusola Oke moved to the APC from the PDP in the aftermath of Buhari’s victory in March 2015. Previously, he ran on the PDP ticket against current governor Mimiko – then of the Labour Party – in 2012. He came second in that election. After Mimiko decamped to the PDP in 2014, he hijacked the party structure in the state, forcing Oke into the arms of the APC.

If he wins on Saturday, he will become heavily courted by both parties, and his next move will be closely watched.

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