by Amanze Obi

Tinubu’s lack of confidence in the proposed conference has since gone viral. Opposition elements from the fold of the APC have, even without devoting a proper thought to the idea, chosen to condemn and dismiss it. From the way they have spoken, it is obvious that the idea is bad for the simple reason that it is coming from a man that their National Chairman, Chief Bisi Akande,  has, uncharitably,  described as a kindergarten president.

This Column had, three weeks ago, packaged and delivered President Goodluck Jonathan’s proposed National Conference as ominous. The reason for this characterisation was simple enough. A powerful segment of the North is patently suspicious of the intent of the conference. It seems to believe that the exercise could reverse the political advantage, which the North has over the South.

While that feeling is still rife in parts of the North with a group of Northern elders, rejecting the idea of the conference, a strident voice of opposition anchored on the beliefs or suspicions of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is tearing through the thickets of the Nigerian polity. The first salvo was released by the former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu. He dismissed the proposed conference as a Greek Gift from Jonathan. He wants discerning Nigerias to take a second look at the idea with a view to discovering the truth.

Tinubu’s lack of confidence in the proposed conference has since gone viral. Opposition elements from the fold of the APC have, even without devoting a proper thought to the idea, chosen to condemn and dismiss it. From the way they have spoken, it is obvious that the idea is bad for the simple reason that it is coming from a man that their National Chairman, Chief Bisi Akande,  has, uncharitably,  described as a kindergarten president. In other words, politics has taken the shine off an idea that ought to be considered on its merit.

The uncritical rejection of the idea almost took a pugnacious turn this Monday when Governor Adams Oshiomhole  decided to dramatize his opposition to the idea before members of the Advisory Committee of the conference led by Senator Femi Okorunmu. The audience at the sensitization forum in Benin City could not come to terms with Oshiomhole’s open air denigration of the idea. They rose in protest  against him. The exercise had to end in a fiasco. Oshiomhole’s gall was simply infectious. It is symptomatic of the air of dismissal which pervades the APC fold as far as Jonathan’s conference is concerned. For the APC, at least the vocal section of it, Jonathan’s proposal, coming at this time, is aimed at diverting attention. They see it as a subterfuge, a subterranean route towards attaining or realizing his 2015 ambition. This is the impression that is being sold to the Nigerian publics.

However, as an analyst, I am yet to understand what the APC is talking about here. I am yet to see the nexus between the conference and 2015. How does one help the case or cause of the other? Somebody should please analyse this scenario in a way that will make sense to me. For now, I see any opposition based on this argument as hogwash.  It does not hold water. I have not even seen any argument in it at all. What I see is a case of throwing away the baby with the bathwater. It will be unfortunate if the undiscerning among us are taken in by this sophistry.

But there is something particularly surprising about the opposition to the conference coming from the south west axis of the APC. It is a well known fact that if there is anything the south west has always clamoured for in this country, it is national conference. Many of them have even been insisting on a Sovereign National Conference (SNC). Tinubu made a mantra of this when he was governor of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007. He has not wavered on this even out of office.

We have not  forgotten that the south west found solace in SNC when the north was clamouring  for Sharia in the early days  of the Olusegun Obasanjo  presidency. The south east romanced with the confederation idea contained in the Aburi Accord of 1967 which Yakubu  Gowon  as Nigeria’s Head of State repudiated.  The south south , as always, rested its  case on resource control.

So what has gone wrong? Why has the south west represented at    this point in time by Tinubu’s  APC suddenly gone against  the idea of a national conference?  In what way has Jonathan polluted the idea as to make it so repulsive to the south west?

I had thought that the snag in all of this would have been Jonathan’s latter-day declaration that the outcome of the conference would be subject to the approval of the National Assembly. Jonathan’s about-face, which was not part of his earlier articulation of the idea, disappointed many. It is simply pig-headed. It is so because to subject the outcome of the conference to review by the National   Assembly will automatically reduce the potency of the idea. The National Assembly is a product of the distorted system that we want the conference to deal with. If we then return to the present state of distortion for authentication, we will invariably be voting for the status quo.

Jonathan, probably, did not give proper consideration to this scenario before he spoke. He was probably under pressure from the National Assembly. But I would like to believe that Mr. President knows better now. The National Assembly is not suited for the assignment he wanted to reserve for it. He should therefore drop the idea. Experts have told him that it is only the people who constitute the sovereign that can tinker with the decision of the conference. I expect Jonathan to be properly guided in this matter.

Since Jonathan’s goof here is not and has never been the concern or worry of Tinubu’s  APC which represents the position of the south west, one is then left wondering why  the zone has suddenly abandoned its flag . It is suspected in informed circles that the zone is being swayed by the unpreparedness of the north to embrace the idea of a national conference. It is strongly believed that the snag here is that of political interest. Since we are told that in politics there no permanent enemies or permanent friends but permanent interests, the suspicion here is that the south west has chosen to embrace the position of the north on the strength of the gains it would make from the APC arrangement. In other words, what matters at this point in time is the south west’s interest or expected benefit from the APC platform. It does not matter whether this position contradicts or stands against the position it used to be fanatical about. That, it is believed, may explain why the zone that has been making a fetish of national conference has suddenly developed a cold feet. Should anybody blame anybody here? I do not think so. After all, it is in the nature of man to seek self-preservation first before anything else.

Where then does this scenario leave us?  I propose that the way to go is for Jonathan to put on hold the proposed national conference. He should go ahead and work towards his re-election next year. Since bookmakers have tipped him for a possible return in 2015, Jonathan would have all the time from 2015 to the next election year to organize his national conference .He will also be in a position to see to the implementation of its outcome. A post-2015 national conference will also save Jonathan and the entire country the angst that we are experiencing at moment.

The north may still be ill at ease with it. But the south west will be an interesting political bloc to watch then. By 2015, the zone would have got what it is scheming for or may have lost it. Whatever the set-up may be then, the zone would be in a position to be more practical about the conference. I suspect that the exigencies of the moment might hamper the proposed national conference. A post -2015 exercise may make all the difference. Over to you, Mr. President.

 

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