@TundeLeye: 2015 elections- There will be no excuses for Jega (Y! FrontPage)

by Tunde Leye

The freest and fairest election in the history of Nigeria had a 35% voter turnout. We need to let that sink in. Quoting American observer Peter Lewis, this is how Martin Meredith’s seminal book, The State of Africa, describes it.

“To everyone’s surprise, the election of 12 June (1993) was possibly the fairest, though hardly the most free in Nigeria’s post-independence history. The combined influence of apathy, apprehension and confusion kept many away from the polls – voter turnout was estimated at only 35 percent. Widespread administrative and logistical problems also prevented a number of intending voters from registering their ballots (including Bashir Tofa, who held an invalid voter registration card), but there was little evidence of systematic fraud or vote rigging… and there were no reports of serious violence or casualties. Despite narrow choices available to voters, the outcome of the election was eagerly anticipated in the wake of a successful poll”

The first thing that strikes me about this report is that the freest and fairest elections in our history were marred with irregularities that would have made them null and void. And in many cases, June 12 is the benchmark we set for elections in this country without really looking at the facts of how low a benchmark June 12 is.

Another thing that jumps at you is how accurately the report describes Nigerian elections every single time. Elections are an expensive affair and underpin our democracy. The fact that they happen every four years should mean we can learn from conducts of previous elections to adjust quickly. But we lack a sense of history. Every electoral body keeps making the same mistake. Like NEC of June 12, INEC is yet to solve the most critical problems that are stated in that report.

First, logistical problems. If we read the reports of any elections conducted in Nigeria over the last 16years, the recurring indices are late arrival of materials, poor logistical coordination, electoral officers arriving late, and other such issues. And it is the window created by these logistical issues that engender the voter apathy that is present in our system as well as the opportunity that vote riggers need to perpetuate their illegality. Our hopes were high that INEC would not repeat the mistakes of the years past with 2015. But as we can see clearly from the way INEC has bungled the logistics of the Permanent Voter’s Card distribution, we will face these issues in 2015. And there are those who are experts at exploring those loopholes waiting for it.

A second issue in that report is one of voter confusion. Again, INEC has done a good job confusing voters already. One wonders if the process of obtaining a PVC especially if you have relocated was not designed to disenfranchise Nigerians. Take for example someone who was living in Enugu as at the time of the last elections and who has now relocated to Kaduna permanently. If this individual decides to vote in Kaduna, in order to get a PVC, he first has to travel to Enugu to obtain his PVC and then follow a convoluted process that involves the Resident Electoral Commissioners both in Enugu and Kaduna before getting a PVC valid for Kaduna. Most Nigerians will not follow this through. Or the example of Lagos where some local government areas are being distributed and others are not. People that have relocated within the state are confused as to how to go about getting their cards. This already disenfranchises a large swathe of the populace.

Again in June 1993, there were very vocal complaints of people being missing from the voter’s register or having invalid cards issued to them, especially as personified in the NRC presidential candidate, Bashir Tofa’s experience. Whilst we cannot divorce the possibility of simply playing politics on the part of APC states crying wolf over the sudden decrease in registered voters from their states, INEC is yet to give a clear explanation as to why this is the case. Lagos complained that the number of voter in the register for Lagos reduced by almost 1.5Million people. That is huge and requires serious explanation.

One similarity that 2015 might have with 1993 is that violence during the polls will be minimal against all expectations. However, it is what happens with the results of the polls and the actions of the various political actors that will determine whether the nation will devolve in a post June 12 type violence or a peaceful continuation of our democracy. Unfortunately, it would seem that our political class and Nigerians at large do not learn from history. Those that refuse to learn from history makes the repeat of history inevitable. Deploying security operatives to the National Assembly is an example of such acts of recklessness that could have plunged the nation into chaos. As I watched the video, one wonders if the nation might not have erupted in flames if a trigger happy policeman had shot Tambuwal.

The final piece of the 2015 puzzle, which 1993 or anything in our history cannot offer us a clear precedent is the virulent and territory grabbing Boko Haram insurgency in the North. Whilst politicians are insistent on holding elections in these places, it should be clear to them that no one can turn out to vote in an atmosphere of insecurity and where the territory is not under Nigerian control. Therefore, the most important issues in these areas are not 2015 elections but reclaiming Nigerian territory and defeating and eradicating the threat of Boko Haram.

The excuses that were acceptable in 2011 and other Gubernatorial elections in between then and now will not be acceptable from INEC in 2015. Professor Atahiru Jega will be assessed on INEC’s performance. It is already not looking good, but from the reactions from Jega, actions are being taken to rectify the challenges to ensure that Nigerians are not disenfranchised. We observe with keen interest.

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Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

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