@cenbank report shows Nigeria’s economy picking up in Q2

by Tunji Andrews

Provisional data indicated that growth in key monetary aggregate was sluggish in the second quarter of 2014. Over the level at the end of the preceding quarter, broad money supply, (M2), grew by 1.5%, compared with 0.2% at the end of the preceding quarter. The development reflected, largely, the 1.1% and 4.5% increase in foreign assets (net) and other assets (net) of the banking system, respectively, during the review quarter.

Available data indicated mixed developments in banks’ deposit and lending rates in the second quarter of 2014. The spread between the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending rates widened by 0.05 percentage point to 17.22% in the review quarter. The margin between the average savings deposit and the maximum lending rates, however, narrowed by 0.01 percentage point to 22.40%.

The weighted average inter-bank call rate rose by 0.26 percentage point to 10.59% in the second quarter of 2014, reflecting the liquidity condition in the inter-bank funds market. Provisional data indicated that the value of money market assets outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2014 increased by 3.4% to N7,144.49 billion, compared with the increase of 1.1% at the end of the preceding quarter.

The development was attributed, largely, to the 5.8% increase in FGN Bonds outstanding. Available data indicated that developments in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed during the second quarter of 2014. Total federally-collected revenue stood at N2,601.98 billion, representing an increase of 4.3% above the receipts in the first quarter of 2014, but was a decline of 4.3% below the proportionate quarterly budgeted estimate.

At N1,795.53 billion, oil receipts, which constituted 69.0% of the total, exceeded the proportionate budget estimate marginally by 0.2%, but fell by 0.7% below the receipts in the preceding quarter. The increase in oil receipts relative to the proportionate budget estimate was attributed, largely, to the rise in the other oil revenues during the review period.

Non-oil receipts, at N806.45 billion, was below the budget estimate by 13.1%, but was 17.4% above the receipts in the preceding quarter. Federal Government retained revenue was N864.15 billion, while total expenditure was N1,193.52 billion. Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted in an estimated deficit of N329.37 billion in the second quarter of 2014, compared with the quarterly budget and the preceding quarter’s deficit of N241.1 billion and N202.7 billion, respectively.

Activities in the agricultural sector improved slightly in the second quarter as a result of well distributed rainfall in most parts of the country. Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at an average of 1.91 million barrels per day (mbd) or 173.81million barrels for the quarter. Crude oil export stood at 1.46 mbd or 131.4 million barrels for the quarter, while deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption remained at 0.45 mbd or 40.95 million barrels.

The average price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (370API), rose by 1.7% above the level in the first quarter of 2014. The end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year) was 8.2%, compared with the 7.8 and 8.4% recorded at the end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2013, respectively. Inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis was 8.0%, compared with 8.2% and 10.4% in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2013, respectively.

Provisional data indicated that foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$12.67 billion and US$12.81 billion, respectively, resulting in a net out flow of US$0.14 billion during the review quarter. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the authorized dealers amounted to US$10.79 billion, compared with US$14.40billion in the first quarter of 2014.

The average exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar at the rDAS window was N157.29 per US dollar, indicating a marginal appreciation over its levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2013. Similarly, relative to their respective levels in the first quarter of 2014, the naira appreciated by 1.6% and 0.3% at both the bureau-de-change and inter-bank segments of the market.

Available data from the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) indicated that global growth in 2014 was projected at 3.7% following increased global activity recorded in the second half of 2013. The development was attributed to expected increase in aggregate demand in the advanced economies and rebound in exports in emerging economies, even as domestic demand remained weaker than expected in many countries.

World crude oil demand in the second quarter of 2014 increased by 0.8% above the level recorded in the first quarter of 2014. Similarly, world crude oil output also increased by 0.3% over the level recorded in the preceding quarter. The OPEC reference basket price of eleven selected crude streams increased by 1.0 and 4.8% above its levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2013, respectively. The prices of the UK Brent, the WTI and the Forcados exhibited similar trend.

Comments (11)

  1. who are they deceiving?

  2. @jibunna, oooool. oga stop day dreaming. its the governments money.

  3. only if the coul convert those figures into dollars and give it to me

  4. OKAY, NOTED. MORE REPORTS

  5. whats Q2?

  6. are we suppose to congratulate her?

  7. so how will accept the common man?

  8. how is picking up, i havent seen any changes ooo.

  9. too many figures, i dont understand. anyone in the house, biko explain

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cool good eh love2 cute confused notgood numb disgusting fail